Will he be just as devastating at 168? And will he probably end up at 175 later in his career? What do you guy's think as he progresses up?
Although his fundamentals and defence generally are better than he is getting credit for generally, he is, to a degree, a walk through fighter who can be knocked down. I suspect that his most affective weight will be 160. Unless there is some sort of weight making issue I am not aware off?
I think 168 will be Pavlik at his peak. I would love to see him KTFO Miranda again just to prove it was no fluke like Edison protests WAY TOO MUCH that it was. What's more, I'd love to see him brutally KOing that annoying self-appointed heir to Calzaghe, Carl Froch. 175, he'd be great, but not as good (which still would dominate that division if stays a haven for old-timers). At 200, I see Pavlik stuggling and starting to show wear. At HW (which he claims he'd love to do) he'll get decked fast by any of the title holders. I seriously doubt Pavlik can do what Jones did. What's worse, if he tried, he'd fall apart worse than RJJ did when he came back down. I love Pavlik and am seriously glad he's the first boxer in years to get non-boxing fans interested, but he would be making a HUGE mistake to make a run at the HW divsion. Calzaghe is doing what Jones, Hopkins, and Collins did to him. Pity.
175. Pavlik is 26 years old. He hasn't yet hit a point where his body will fill out like it does when you hit 30. He may lose some power as he steps up but judging by his height that seems unlikely. Taller guys usually carry power up well as they go higher in weight. At his height he could handle 175lbs easily. When guys lose steam going up in weight it has more to do with height and reach. They find themselves having to punch upwards and further, which reduces the impact on the punch.
we wont know until he fights legit 168 and 175 elite fighters of course, but he definately has the frame to easily carry 175 without problems. he has a heavyweight's sized fist, and a bigger frame than some light heavies. i also feel because of that his power, balance and even chin will improve with the extra weight. much like cotto who was buzzed a few times at 140, yet seemed to improve at 147, i think pavlik will find the same benefits. and also according to a couple accounts, he is even more dangerous when sparring at his natural weight (throws more punches, takes shots better etc.) which seems to be around 168 and 175. however i also reckon the biggest threats will come at 175. the advantages he has at 160 will not be as apparent the higher he goes. even though we haven't seem him defend his titles for years at 160 if he could remain at this weight he would be a beast and most likely retire undefeated. however i think the second half of his career will end up at 168, since i cannot imagine him making weight for more than 12 more months tops, without damaging his health and ability to fight effectively. provided he remains focused in training, 168 will be the sweet spot for the rest of his career.
