When Pavlik fights Abraham...

Each one of these guys presents a unique set of challenges the other has not dealt with. Pavlik normally beats seven shades of **** out of short power punchers, but he hasn't faced one as durable or as defensively adequate as Abraham. Arthur has never faced a tall, heavy handed, high work rate, long armed guy like KP. In fact, Arthur has only faced one fighter over 6', and that was Ikeke. The similarities between Pavlik and Ikeke start AND stop at being tall.

Many of those who predict a Pavlik win predict a win by decision. I disagree. Both of these guys are very good at what they do, and what they do is leave the vast majority of their opponents slumped in a heap on the canvass. I would be surprised to see this go a full 12 rounds, and KP has a higher KO ratio against better opposition. Miranda hurt Arthur BAD. Kelly would have finished him.

When AA was busy with Marquez, who was a mandatory, Pavlik fought Hopkins. When KP was busy with Lockett, also a mandatory, Arthur fought a rematch with Miranda. When Pavlik was busy with the rematch obligation to Jermain, Arthur fought Elvin Ayala (Zuniga was the rightful mandatory.) During the period when Pavlik fought consecutive fights with Zertuche, Miranda, and Jermain Taylor, Arthur fought Demers, Gevor, and Elcock. Neither guy has what I would call a stellar resume', but Pavlik is way ahead of AA where quality of opposition is concerend.

Arthur is tough, but tough ain't enough. He has numerous bad habits that Pavlik will make him pay for. He throws a lot of wide looping shots that will not reach Pavlik and will leave him wide open to a jab-right hand that comes right down the pipe. He also has a bad habit of lunging in with his head and shoulders sticking way out past his feet. If he does that against Pavlik, his corner will have to gather his head up out of the front row.

Pavlik is a stalker who applies constant pressure. His methodology is simple. Stalk 'em, stun 'em, put 'em on the ropes and unleash hell. One thing I noticed about Arthur is that the slightest amount of pressure sends him to the ropes or a corner. Several of his opponents had him on the ropes, and just let him go because they could not engage without getting in range to be countered. That will not be the case with Pavlik who has a 3" reach advantage. In addition to a gross reach advantage, Kelly has relatively long arms, and Arthur has short arms. Kelly normally has to bully guys back to the ropes. Arthur will most likely volunteer to go exactly where Pavlik wants him, and you can't counter what you can't reach.

An opponent MUST NOT let Pavlik trap him on the ropes. Arthur has to do everything he can to keep the fight in the center of the ring. One problem here is that it takes speed and smart movement equal to BHop or Taylor in the rematch to pull that off. Arthur does not have the needed attributes or skills at that level. A second problem is that going to the ropes is what Arthur does naturally. He WANTS to go there. That's a recipe for disaster.

These frequent comparisons between Abraham's defense and a prime Winky are either pure nuthuggery, or made by people who don't know much about Winky. Winky has ungodly long arms. AA has short arms. Unlike Winky Arthur cannot put on the ear muffs and protect his body at the same time. He has to choose. Pavlik will throw some well placed lead rights and left hooks up under Arthur's respective elbows, and the guard will come down.

Pavlik really needs to watch himself on a couple of his bad habits too. Sometimes when the right hand misses Kelly falls in really bad. When that happens it leaves him way out of position and off balance. That's a perfect time for AA to exlpode without notice. However, if he catches Kelly with one of those near-perfect right hands he occasionally launches, he must not get sloppy with the follow up. If he does, Kelly will make him pay for it. Or, at the very least, survive and recuperate.

KP must not stop to admire his handy work. Seriously! If you watch Pav closely, you'll notice that once in a while after he throws a particularly nice right hand, he pauses for a split second, leaves his right hanging out in the middle of nowhere, and just looks at his opponent. Not a good idea against a guy like Arthur.

Finally, Pav should probably avoid his normal bully routine. Kelly does not mind takin' an ass whoopin'. He's perfectly willing to throw defense out the window so that he can keep throwing punches and bully his opponent into the position he wants him in. That's probably not the best way to approach Arthur. Kelly probably needs to slow down a little, focus less on work rate, and more on defense and accuracy.

I could say a lot more about these two, but this post is already to long. Pavlik KO8 Abraham.
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Pavlik is going to get KTFO. Can I be the first to make an avatar bet with you? 6 months?

 

6 months? You don't post frequently enough. How about 3K posts?

 

:rofl

 

nah he's cut and pasted he's posted that before or something similar

 

IF Pavlik fights AA...

...what boo said, though I wouldn't dismiss the idea of a decision too hastily. AA might just curl up in his shell and never move out of there, and Pavlik will just keep winning the rounds, not landing anything too significant past AA's guard, but scoring through aggression and glancing. KP is just a better boxer than AA, and he could use that to his advantage without having to charge in headlong.

 

Abraham will Ko Pavlik twice with a round 5 tko stoppage!!!

 

The real post should be IF Pavlik and Abraham dance,cuz it ain't looking like it...

 

. . . I can only asure you people that it won't be a decission victory for any of the combatants.

Somebody's going down. :deal

 

I thought that was the 2nd round?

I honestly think that for the first 7 rounds the fight will be very close and extremely cautious...then Pavlik and Abraham will try to open up and one will get caught. I think Pavlik will walk into a left hook after throwing a punch way too wide and go down for the count.

 

As VG would say, "word on the street" is that Saurland's visit may pay dividends. Too early to tell for sure. I should say in terms of a May/June match up instead of later. I think it is too close to Hatton/Pac for HBO to want a piece of it though. And let's face it, the money pretty much has to come from them.

 

Yeah. It is the longer armed Pavlik known for throwing the looping hooks. atsch

 

I just had a look at Benn vs. McClellan...Benn had also a huge height disadvantage and I don't think that height will be that important if Pav and Arthur fight (whenever that may be).