If Canelo loses Tim Bradley If Cotto loses maybe a third with Margacheato or rematch with Mosley before retiring.
IMO Cotto retires... win or lose, very happy with his "payday". Canelo does whatever is necessary to get away from O$CAR !!! After 3 or 4 good fights Canelo has rebuilt his credibility... comes back as a major contender.
Cotto will more than likely retire or take a farewell fight against a faded former foe as another poster mentioned. Canelo will have no choice but to move up as he could use the weight as an excuse for getting "wiped out"
If Cotto loses big, he likely retires or has a soft touch retirement bout to go out on a winning note. If Canelo loses big, take some time off, regroup, and eventually come back with a confidence builder to see what's what. :smoke
Canelo can get wiped out in the first round and he will be back in a few years: he is young enough to be rebuilt.