Where would Vitlai Klitschko’s comeback rate if he defeats Sam Peter?

You are too harsh on Layne. When he climbed into the ring against Marciano he had already fought and beaten 8 men who were or would be rated in Ring's yearly rankings. Three of these men, Walcott, Satterfield, and Thompson, had been legitimately rated in the top five.

As for these losses in his career that you listed--Layne lost 17 times--twelve were to men who were rated in the top five at one time or another and most were rated that highly when Layne fought them. Fifteen of his defeats were to men who rated in the top ten. His only two defeats to never rated fighters were to Hans Freidrich, whom Layne had previously knocked out, in his last fight. Freidrich was a decent trial horse who had recently beaten European champion Franco Cavicchi and gone a strong 10 with Ingemar Johansson. Layne's other loss and perhaps his hardest to explain, was a 1952 upset to Willie James, a fierce puncher who later killed Olympic Champion Ed Sanders in the ring.

The bottom line with Layne is that he defeated two world champions, Walcott and Charles, as well as top men Satterfield and Thompson, and rated heavies such as Joe Kahut, Bob Dunlap, and Cesar Brion. The positive side of his resume is strong for a mere contender.
He did lose quite a bit and seemed to run out of gas after the Marciano fight, but brutal matchups might have had something to do with it. I think Layne was grossly mismanaged. He fought 28 fights against top ten men and 17 fights against top five men in a SEVEN year career. That means he AVERAGED four fights a year against rated opposition and averaged about 2 and 1/2 fights a year against top five opposition. Given that he was a tough mauler who took one to land one, this was ruinous. I don't think it is any surprise he faded. I believe that if Marv Jensen had picked his opponents more carefully and held him to perhaps two tough fights a year, he would have had a longer career with a better winning percentage and still been highly rated.

 

I think this pretty well sums it up.

For the note, I think the chances are very good that this fight will not end up happening. If it does, Vitali probably wins, since, as I said before, Peter is just good enough to beat old, fat, rusty, injured, declining contenders who were never especially good in the first place, and while Vitali is certainly old, rusty and injured, I do think he was especially good in the first place. In other words, I'd say there's about a 60% chance of the fight actually happening, and about a 70% chance of Vitali winning if it does. If both things take place, it will be an impressive feat and the biggest win of Vitali's career, but it will not be an excuse to transform him into an all-time great or anything close to that.

 

It would be a solid win but Peter is primed for a knockout. He has sustained a lot of damage (Wlad and Mccline) and his conditioning and movement continue to worsen.

You cant last long when u use your face to block punches. If Vitali does fight Peter, he will knock Peter out. Vitali will use his intelligence, size, and uppercut to end the Goat Herder's reign

 

The big word here is-

If

 

hahha. true. the real question should be will vitali be able to survive training camp in order to ko the goat herder. i got it at 50-50 right now. :yep

In terms of legacy, moorer was a much better boxer than peter but had an egg chin so id say moorer was a slightly better opponent. also, the foreman win was for the linear and legit championship. a vitali win would just make him a titlist.

 

If he dose get through training camp he will not be the Vitally we all know and love.

If he gets through training camp and wins he has a TKO win over Janitor.

 

Training camp is a top prospect. He's what, 5-0 against Vitali in their last five fights?

I don't think anyone denies that Vitali is hot on the trail of a juicy piece of game for his legacy; the question is, can he get back what he once had? Peter is tailor-made for a 2004 Vitali, but what will a 2008 Vitali be like?

If the fight does happen, I think it'll be exciting. Both boxers love to brawl and neither is likely to pull a Chris Byrd.

 

I'm not sure they can. It's one thing to look good in camp, it's a whole different sport to produce it in the ring. We will have to see, but there is no doubt that Vitali is training against the odds.

True, but in camp everyone was talking about how Tyson had finally prepared properly.

I don't think it's a question of being hit less, I think it's a question of proportionality. It's worth noting, for instance, that while Lewis had a long time he did not train intensely all year round; I bet his prime would have been a lot shorter if he had fought four or five times a year. And surely Vitali is the poster-child for tall bodies depreciating quickly.

Of course it's a generalization and it's hard to determine the exact factors behind any individual injury, but there's no doubt that Vitali's body has not been robust over the years.

It's true that Toney beat Ruiz (although about a year before facing Peter, and Ruiz is hardly top crop) but Toney was manifestely awful against Peter, especially in their second fight. It's also notable that Peter didn't stop or come close to stopping Toney, and indeed many (although not me personally) thought Peter lost the first fight; I just thought it was a closer fight that it would have been if Peter had better stamina.

He is certainly a puncher, stylistically at least, but if he is to be called a big puncher, he's got to do something outstanding with his punches. Had he KO'd Toney or McCline, I think we could talk about him as a huge puncher. Since he wasn't even close to doing it, I think it's best to describe him as a puncher with good but not outstanding power. He certainly is not the Earnie Shavers/Mike Tyson puncher that some make him out to be.

I agree that Peter is inaccurate. He'd be a lot more effective if he learnt to uppercut properly on the inside.

I agree that it's reasonable to say that Peter (at least on his good nights) can be at about the same level as Lyle. Therefore, given Quarry's performance against Lyle, we agree that Quarry was better than Peter and therefore Ali beat a more impressive opponent in his comeback fight than Vitali potentially can. However, as I've already said, it's not shame to be second to number 1.

It's unknown whether Peter is in his prime. Ali met Quarry in 1970, before some of Quarry's biggest wins and over five years before Quarry was in serious decline.

Quarry was indeed limited as you say (which, of course, played into Ali's hands) but Peter is limited in his own ways (poor stamina, bad technique, poor finishing ability, almost non-existant defensive skills, reliance on power etc.) which play into Vitali's hands. Both Ali and Vitali faced/will face opponents who are perfect for them, which was my initial point.

Peter has certainly become a less crude slugger of late, but he's still very basic (a limited range of buncher, little defense, still loops badly) and his improvements against Maskaev, while laudable, didn't constitute a change in categorisation in my opinion. Still, I agree that it would be extremely impressive for Vitali, given his injury problems, age and time out of the ring, to be able to come back and beat any top 5 opponent in any era.

I think that, like his other accomplishments, there will be differences of opinion on the overall contribution of his comeback to Vitali's legacy. Some will argue it qualifies him for a top 10 spot, some will argue it does next to nothing. As usual, the truth will be somewhere in between: it will be a big win over a top contender for the title and amongst the most surprising turn-arounds in a career, but it won't drive him very far up my rankings, although it will a bit.

What could be very advantageous for Vitali would be if he wins and Peter goes on to do very well. Wladimir's legacy has already benefitted from Peter's accomplishments after their fight, and I suspect that Vitali could reap some ongoing dividends of his own if he wins.

 

Mendoza--It is only fair to ask. What happens to Vitali's reputation and historical stature if Peter dominates him for a few rounds and then puts him down for the count?
If Vitali loses to Peter, he would end up with a losing record against rated fighters and 3 stoppage defeats in 38 fights, a rather high total.

 

Of course, there is the danger that Vitali will make it through camp, only to get injured in the ring.

 

Yep, i'm afraid this fight ends disappointing in Peter again looking bad against a skilled tall fighter, but with Vitali's body breaking down anywhere down the stretch, leaving him retired for good and the outboxed Peter still as "champion".

 

Well i meant that i think there's a very high chance that even if Vitali makes it into the ring, his body breaks down during the fight.

 

I think most of the others who came back, with the possible exception of Louis who was being hounded by the tax vampires, probably thought they were going to win, otherwise why risk coming back.

Peter is not in the same league at this time with Charles, Marciano, or Holmes, who made Louis and Ali look bad. He is more on the level of Savold or Berbick.

Any loss would be a bad blow to Vitali's prestige. A bad loss would end any serious talk of him being a top fifty heavy unless Peter goes on to become an ATG.