which is more likely, Crawford winning on all 3 scorecards against Canelo or knocking Canelo down

I think it clearly Crawford clearing Canelo on all 3 cards. Canelo has a top tier chin and I feel like it would be a flash knockdown if Canelo did get knocked down.

 

He's not dropping Canelo......................far more likely to see a win on the cards

 

It's pretty hard to score an UD against Canelo, as we've seen with Floyd and Golovkin 1 which should have both been clear UD's. Even Bivol had to absolutely dominate to get a very close UD.
Still, I think it's slightly more likely as Crawford scoring a KD.