Which of these 3 big fights is there the best chance of an upset?

Discussion in 'World Boxing Forum' started by freedom2013, Sep 2, 2013.


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  1. freedom2013

    freedom2013 Boxing Junkie banned

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    Mayweather vs. Alvarez
    Haye vs. Fury
    Klitschko vs. Povetkin

    Mayweather, Klitschko, and Haye seem to be the favorites. Betting oddsmakers and most boxing fans and writers are expecting them to win.

    In which fight is there the best chance of an upset?
     
    freedom2013, Sep 2, 2013
    freedom2013, Sep 2, 2013
    #1
  2. kirk

    kirk l l l Staff Member

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    Hmmm.... tough.

    Personally, just imo... Id say.

    1 - Fury vs Haye : As completely vulnerable as Fury is against Haye, he is huge. If he somehow, against all odds, makes it to the middle rounds, and has been able to make it a rough fight, Haye might start to gas, and maybe Fury eeks out a controversial decision by winning the championship rounds by his size and roughhouse tactics.

    I have it about 75/25 in favor of Haye


    2 - Mayweather vs Alvarez : May is old, his hands are acting up again, Alvarez is in his prime and may (or may not) be improving. A lot of people will profit highly off of a rematch, and the best road to a rematch is a draw, or the real shocker, a Canelo victory. So watch for some controversial scorecards. And that's just on top of if May isn't too sharp on fight night due to age, or maybe hurts his hand early on Canelos head, or maybe... just maybe, canelo actually winds up fighting decent that night and does just enough to see the judges tilt it in his favor.

    I see it around 80/20 in favor of May


    3 - Povetkin vs Wlad.

    If Wlad happens to be on the downslide, Povetkin will not be the fighter to expose that. He could maybe turn in the performance of his life and shock the hell out of me by making it an inside fight that takes Wlad out of his comfort zone, but with Wlads size and strength advantage here, I just don't see that happening either. Wlad should win this fight, and I don't see there even being a case for a potential robbery. It would have to be a robbery of epic proportions, and that's if Povetkin makes it the distance, which im not sure he does.

    I see that 90/10 in favor of Wlad.






    Just imo
     
    kirk, Sep 2, 2013
    kirk, Sep 2, 2013
    #2
  3. freedom2013

    freedom2013 Boxing Junkie banned

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    I think Alvarez and Fury have virtually no chance of winning.

    Mayweather may have slowed a bit, but he's an ATG boxer and Canelo is still a year or so away from his prime. Besides, Alvarez may be a bit weight-drained.

    Fury is simply not quick enough to avoid Haye's big punches, and Haye has excellent sparring so he'll be very well-prepared.

    Now Wladimir is a big favorite too, and my favorite boxer. But he's age 37 and has had a lot of professional and amateur fights. He's been pushing himself to the limit in his many training camps over the years. I see some premature age in his face this year, more wrinkles than he should have, more than his older brother.

    Now I fully expect Wladimir to win, he's a great athlete and has become a very crafty boxer over the years. He has the advantage in power, height, wingspan and pro experience.

    But Povetkin is a better fighter than some people make him out to be. He didn't look good in his fight with Huck, but we should keep in mind he had been working with Teddy Atlas for a couple of years before that time, and hadn't had time to recover from Teddy's negative influence. After more time working with Kostya Tszyu, Povetkin looked sharper in his next two fights against Rahman and Wawrzyk. Neither opponent was very good, but Povetkin impressed by getting rid of them quickly.

    And the fight is in Moscow and promoted by a Russian. Not only will Povetkin have the crowd behind him, the officials may be on his side too, as is often the case for the home fighter anywhere in the world.

    So although I'm picking Wladimir to win by late KO/TKO, I think Povetkin has a real chance (about 25%) of winning on Oct 5, while I think Alvarez and Fury have virtually NO chance (less than 10%) of winning their fights.
     
    freedom2013, Sep 2, 2013
    freedom2013, Sep 2, 2013
    #3
  4. Rumsfeld

    Rumsfeld Moderator Staff Member

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    Pretty much agree with you, especially the order. I do give Fury and Canelo better odds than you, but I'm with the spirit of your argument.

    :smoke
     
    Rumsfeld, Sep 2, 2013
    Rumsfeld, Sep 2, 2013
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  5. kirk

    kirk l l l Staff Member

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    Thanks Rums :good

    As for the odds, I actually might be giving all three a bit less odds then the fights n fighters actually warrant :think Even Povetkin, in reality, probably has more then a 10% chance, given all the variables involved. So I probably agree with you there.
     
    kirk, Sep 2, 2013
    kirk, Sep 2, 2013
    #5
  6. Rumsfeld

    Rumsfeld Moderator Staff Member

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    Actually, I thought your Wlad-Povetkin odds may have been generous to Povetkin! :lol::good

    But Fury definitely has the best chance of the bunch, and I think he has a pretty good chance (although I understand I am the minority here).
     
    Rumsfeld, Sep 2, 2013
    Rumsfeld, Sep 2, 2013
    #6
  7. Koba

    Koba Whimsical Inactivisist Full Member

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    Good call I'd say. Agree completely on the order. Your odds are close enough for me too.:good
     
    Koba, Sep 3, 2013
    Koba, Sep 3, 2013
    #7
  8. Firestarter

    Firestarter Active Member Full Member

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    You pretty much nails it there, I might not agree totally on the odds, but thats minor.
    I can see Fury have a bit bigger chance of making it, and I'm not convinced of how good Hayes chin is and if the fight makes in to 8+ I can see the chance of a shocker.
    Canelo, is the bigger man, and we have seen in the past how fighters gets old over night. But again 44 have tried to solve the puzzle that is Mayweather 44 have failed.
    I really cannot see in scenario how Povetkin shold win, except by a lucky punch.
     
    Firestarter, Sep 3, 2013
    Firestarter, Sep 3, 2013
    #8
  9. Robney

    Robney ᴻᴼ ᴸᴼᴻᴳᴲᴿ ᴲ۷ᴵᴸ Full Member

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    I think it's Floyd vs Canelo, in wich there's a chance Floyd has faded too much and/or Canelo is just too big and strong for him (there will be a huge weight disparity at fightnight). I have a feeling the shoulderroll won't be as effective against Alvarez.

    2nd is Fury vs Haye, with the chance of a lucky punch landing from Fury or Haye doing his "but he's so big" routine and losing rounds just because of running and trowing 10 punches a round.

    The Wlad vs Povetkin fight is one of those "he has nothing to trouble him with" bouts. Other as a lucky punch, there's nothing in there for Pov.
     
    Robney, Sep 3, 2013
    Robney, Sep 3, 2013
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  10. itsa huge bitch

    itsa huge bitch Boxing Junkie Full Member

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    wlad vs povetkin is about 35/65 in favour of wlad..reason being.its in russia povetkin not only has the crowd he will be able to come in juiced up also wlad will be out of his comfort zone..i still expect wlad to come through it easy enough but him losing wouldnt surprise me...

    haye vs fury is 30/70 in hayes favour which is only because if fury manages to make it past the 6th then things will get very interesting..

    floyd vs canelo (80/20) will prob be a ud or tko for floyd hes far to experianced and to be honest canelo still isnt at THAT level yet to beat a guy like floyd...
     
    itsa huge bitch, Sep 3, 2013
    itsa huge bitch, Sep 3, 2013
    #10
  11. freedom2013

    freedom2013 Boxing Junkie banned

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    Also, the officials may favor Povetkin.
     
    freedom2013, Sep 3, 2013
    freedom2013, Sep 3, 2013
    #11
  12. dinovelvet

    dinovelvet Antifanboi Full Member

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    The officials favor Wlad every time he fights in Germany , so its only stands to reason they should favour Povetkin. Bear hugging and head locks are illegal tactics that he over uses to win fights. Take that away from him and he is very beatable...With correct officiating Povetkin has the tools to beat Wlad..
     
    dinovelvet, Sep 3, 2013
    dinovelvet, Sep 3, 2013
    #12
  13. shanahan14

    shanahan14 Boxing Addict banned Full Member

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    Povetkin has absolutely 0 chance to beat Wlad. Yes, 0%.
     
    shanahan14, Sep 3, 2013
    shanahan14, Sep 3, 2013
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  14. Nonito Smoak

    Nonito Smoak Ioka>Lomo, sorry my dudes Full Member

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    Fury beating Haye
     
    Nonito Smoak, Sep 3, 2013
    Nonito Smoak, Sep 3, 2013
    #14
  15. Super Hans

    Super Hans The Super One™ banned

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    Why's Haye- Fury winning the poll. Haye will win that in whatever round he's bet himself to win.

    The other two probably can't say with any great deal of conviction that they will knock out their opponent in a round of their choosing.
     
    Super Hans, Sep 3, 2013
    Super Hans, Sep 3, 2013
    #15
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