Who else thinks Rafael Marquez underestimated Israel Vasquez in their rematch?

He may have come in overconfident and elected to fight Vazquez's fight

In this fight, he needs to get back to his game. And that is staying on the outside, establishing a jab, and boxing. He can't allow Vazquez to make this a fight on the inside because if he does, we'll likely have the same result as the second fight.

 

Hey Brooklyn, I noticed you took Marquez by TKO as well and I wanted to message you, but it says your quota is full. What made you go with him?

I rewatched the fights yesterday and I'm leaning with Marquez, but I'm worried about him. He needs to stick to boxing and staying on the outside, pumping the jab from the first minute or Vazquez will drag him into another war. During the last fight it seemed like Vazquez came in with more of a warrior mentality and before Marquez could loosen up and relax, Vazquez started getting on the inside and exchanging punches with him. Marquez would go back to boxing on the outside succesfully for small periods of time, but his reflexes/defense were a bit off and he looked too tight. After the round 3 madness it seemed like the fight was over for Marquez because he realized he got himself into a war of wills with someone who was mentally stronger and more prepared for that type of fight.

For Marquez to win, he needs to make this a "less exciting" fight than the 2nd one, meaning less wild exchanges. When Marquez was simply boxing and being aware of Vazquez's offense and left hook, the fight was very easy for him. I made a note that when Marquez would land a series of clean punches or one flush shot, he would abandon his defense a bit and try to follow up with very hard shots, but that's when Vazquez actually had his strongest moments. Vazquez would keep cool as Rafael attacked and look for openings, then time left hooks or right hands on him without much trouble. Marquez needs to understand that he should break down Vazquez slowly and not go for the kill when he thinks he has him hurt.

If Vazquez comes out with the same mentality and physical strength as last time, Marquez should be very defensive and keep boxing 100% safely until he relaxes. Once he relaxes and finds his rhythm he can start to unload without getting to wild. When he was in the perfect rhythm during the first 2 fights, Vazquez would kind of freeze up and start to think too much and while he was thinking he would get hit consistently with straight rights and jabs.

Marquez tried to work the body more in the second fight. Do you think he should try to do that in the third fight more or is it too risky because it leaves him open and sometimes lets Vazquez have an easier time getting inside? How do you think the fight will go?

To me, it's 60/40 Marquez, I really think he will fight smart this time and come out with a JMM type of mentality that he had against Pacquiao in rounds 3-12.. boxing, but landing hard enough shots to keep his opponent respecting his power and not getting too wild or careless.

 

I'm so siked for this fight!

 

These two are very closely matched, I had Marquez winning all but one round the first time BUT the margin was razor thin, and it was certainly possible to see a way for Vazquez to win IF Marquez didn't repeat every bit as agood a fight as he did the first time.

Vasquez deserves full credit for his brilliant understanding of the style matchup, knowing with total clarity what his only chance to win was, and comitting to it 110% despite the punishment. But then he did it almost as well in the first fight, only this time he had a tiny bit of tactical cooperation from Marquez.

Even with that, I wouldn't completely rule out the possibility that, had the fight continued Beristain might prevail upon Marquez to fight a slightly less macho fight, go back to what worked the first time - box just a little taller, jab a little more, turn Vasquez ocassionaly, counter with sharp One-Two's instead of big single powershots - a few small corrections plus the legendary cardio endurance of the M brothers and most Breristain proteges might have carried the late rounds to a draw, split-win or even a cut stoppage.

Third fight should resolve this matchup for good. I'd say Marquez allowed Vasquez to win the pre-fight psy-war, got under his skin and made him fight a little more angry than he should have. The rubbermatch will tell wether Marquez has the mental discipline to channel his emotions into following the winnig blueprint from fight 1... or will he be stubborn and once again choose to bend and hook with a shorter, thicker man.

 

Its redicoulous that rafa would overlook izzy in the 2nd fight specially since in the 1st fight before the stoppage, the tide was turning for izzy. the problem with rafa is that he still thinks he has the crushing power he showed against the smaller guys at bantams. Izzy isnt known for having the most iron chin but at this weight,barring the broken nose, he had no problems taking clean shots from rafa. Rafa need to realise that he cant outgun Izzy and need to box in the 3rd fight to win

 

I feel there's a technical subtlety that may work for Marquez - he has a longer, stronger jab and a good right hand to inflict damage over Vazquez' left shoulder and oftenly lazy jab, just that Rafa doesn't move his body like Izzy does... Izzy keeps on moving that body and snaps double jabs, sets up rights and double left hooks, one hook to the body ( to lower the guard) and another upstairs, above Rafa's right glove... Rafa should work on controlling the distance and be very consistent behind straight punches, never presenting his right side to him and Izzy will get timed, possibly badly cut again or if nothing else, behind on points at the end. Rafa just has not to be drawn into exchanges like he did the first two times - he was said to be one of the best pound per pound punchers and wanted to prove himself when stepping up to 122, 77% of Showtime viewers had him to win the rematch and he got carried away...

 

probably did, Izzy just had too much heart that night.

 

Kirk, you mean stronger in the sense that Marquez legs go first? I would agree with that but when Guadalupe Garcia stepped in, Izzy had no time left to finish the job cuz his eyes were a bloody mess... I feel that that little body movement gets Izzy to throw punches with good leverage but he can be denied... Rafa's right hands distort Izzy's face and snap his head back most of the times ( I even believe he half-slipped, was half hurt when tagged and dropped in the fifth)... Rafa definitely won't win short punch exchanges in close tho.