Who has a better chance at producing the upset: Hopkin or Jones?

it's not that simple... you have to look at form in those fights

roy jones for example... his first fight in his "comeback" was against ajamu, a "c-" level opposition, roy outclassed and frustrated him for 12 rounds, looked ok doing it, won 9-10 rounds

his next fight was against hanshaw a younger fighter who was undefeated (but fighting at 175 where his usual weight was 168 )... so i'd rate him as "c+" level opposition, he gave jones some more problems just because he was younger and tenacious, but again at the end of the 12 roy's class showed, he won 8-9 rounds including one legitimate knockdown when he hurt hanshaw in the 11th... at the end of the fight, roy looked gassed but he looked reasonably good stamina-wise for the first 10 1/2 rounds up until the knockdown

then his next fight was against trinidad and you can say what you want but he is at least a "b-/b" level opponent still, even at his bloated weight, he could probably beat some of the contenders at 168... roy went down to 170 to fight him, even weighing in at close to the super middleweight limit (169 1/2 i think)... he looked fit for the whole 12 rounds, scored two knockdowns (both legitimate -- one he hurt tito, and one was a balance shot but both were legit), didn't have any stamina issues, seemed to finish the fight as the fresher fighter, won 8-10 rounds

so a REASONABLE argument can be made that roy is actually improving

btw i'm just stating this as a counterpoint to the argument that it's all about the class of opposition, like i've said in previous posts, although i really really would like to see roy win, i don't see it happening, although i think there's a greater chance of it happening than b-hop beating pavlik... b-hop just lost a fight to a world class fighter due to workrate and stamina issues alone and pavlik is far younger and more relentless

 

That is exactly why i'm picking Jones.

 

Jones because I think he has the power to hurt Joe, but i don't think Hopkins can hurt Pavlik.

 

I think Jones has a better chance for an upset. Whereas Hopkins doesn't look like he's got the stamina to go a full 12 without giving rounds away any more Jones isn't going to have to worry about Calzaghe knocking him out, so I think he'll have the confidence to be aggressive and take a UD.

 

hopkins..., even if pavlik punches like a HW i doubt it this fight goes less than 12 rounds(lets not forget hopkins also has a good chin). Hopkins has a pretty good chance of winning a close decision. Pavlik's workrate would be the key here, and how effective it would be. He also needs to adjust from getting clinch and those counterpunches

 

Jones

 

Hopkins has more left and could sneak a victory with counterpunching and smothering Pavliks attacks. Pavlik is slow footed and moves in straight lines with in a stand-up style, so Hopkins has a chance to outbox him but I believe Pavlik will win.