Thoughts? (NOTE - this isn't who you would want the winner to face, but rather, who you think he will wind up facing - for better or worse). :smoke
A long list of haters, critics and former fans if either of them do not step up and face Gennady Golovkin...!!!
If it's a good fight then they'll rematch. I don't see a Golovkin fight, or even a Lemieux fight for the winner. Ditto for a Mayweather bout. If they don't face each other, they'll fight someone else entirely.
What I think will happen is, that the winner will target Mayweather no matter what, knowing that even if losing again against an older Mayweather, the rematch with the Cotto-Canelo loser would still be there (assuming it's somewhat competitive). So I think the target priority would be: 1. Floyd 2. Rematch the Loser 3. Someone else entirely
Depends on who wins. I see it going like this... - Mayweather/Pacquiao rematch for Mayweather's 50th at new MGM Arena (bleh). - Canelo wins against Cotto by KO in Nov. - WBC upholds Ruling: Canelo fights GGG WBC has been very adamant about the winner of Canelo/Cotto facing GGG. In fact, Sulaiman released another statement again today reaffirming it. He even touched on the rematch basis, and said that the Canelo/Cotto winner will be stripped if they do rematch. I don't think Canelo's mexican blood will allow him to be stripped. He fears no one and I just don't see his pride allowing that to happen no matter what Oscar tells him. So, if WBC is serious about stripping Canelo (which so far, it seems they are) then Canelo will fight GGG. If WBC isn't serious about stripping him, then he won't fight GGG. Cotto will refuse to fight GGG and will gladly be stripped. I think Canelo is too prideful though. But who knows. Maybe he would drop the title to duck GGG.
Canelo will KO Cotto and get a waiver from the WBC for 1 voluntary defense so he can fully adjust to his new weight and he'll take on top contender the savage KO artist Akio Shibata or if he can't get him Jarrod Fletcher will have to do.
I don't think GGG/Canelo will be at 160, actually. I could see it playing out like this... Canelo's side gives GGG to options. Either: a) We can fight now but at a catchweight of 157 pounds b) Wait for us to become comfortable at 160 GGG comes in 157/158 in his fights anyways, so I don't think it'd be much of a problem even though he may be annoyed by it. He wants that belt bad though. I still don't think WBC will allow a mandatory defense due to how vocal they've been in the media about it, but anything's possible. They don't have the best track record, I will admit.
If the WBC upholds their decision, I will give you props as being one of the only people I know of to predict an honorable move on their part. But even if you are correct about that, I think it's far more likely the winner will be stripped for not wanting to face Golovkin. Guess we'll know in due time, as I believe your prediction is that Canelo-Golovkin would happen prior to Cinco de Mayo weekend, 2016. :smoke
Few reasons I think the Floyd fight doesn't happen. GBP/Haymon issues (Canelo), Jay-Z & HBO's issues with Haymon (Cotto). Maybe it can happen if Cotto & Floyd promote it separately. Hard to see Oscar & Floyd reaching terms. Floyd's retired with a pot of money, I don't think he'll have spent enough to need to come back in the first half of next year. If he does, Pacquiao II is an easier fight worth more money. Cotto gave him one of his harder fights and imo he looks better than he did in 2012.
I think he will at the very least, be granted one exception for a voluntary, and then another for a rematch with a cash cow. GGG's best shot of landing one of those fights is to pull in exceptional numbers - not ones that will just make it profitable for all involved, but numbers that border on super s****om. I don't see that happening... And I don't see the WBC helping GGG's cause.... And if they did help his cause and strip the winner, I still think the winner would have enough leverage to steer clear of Golovkin for the foreseeable future. I could be wrong. Wouldn't be the first time, and probably not the last. :smoke
I do agree that Floyd-Pac rematch is probably the most likely, but I think the Cotto-Canelo numbers may come into play here, too. But under no circumstances do I see the winner actually stepping into a ring with Golovkin at any time in 2016.
That's exactly why I'm not buying what they're saying one bit. The rest of your point is pretty much spot on. Especially option b. But I do think if Canelo wins he will eventually fight GGG, he's not afraid, he's thankfully one of the few risk takers in the sport and even if he loses I think he can come back from it with his head held high similar to Oscar post Hopkins KO. So he doesn't have near as much to fear as Cotto who will surely taking a career beating at the hands of GGG, but hopefully Canelo will get him first.:hey
If Canelo beats Cotto (and I'm less convinced than I used to be on that point), and he doesn't fight GGG by 2017, there will be a cluster buck of the highest magnitude! GGG won't want to move up until he lands Canelo. Ward won't want to move up until he lands GGG. That's why I think Kovalev is the best horse to back, because he will still have some potentially good fights that Ward and Golovkin will be lacking.