Kessler. Taylor hasn't done anything of note in the Super-Middleweight division yet, whereas Kessler has won multiple belts and more than held his own against the best in the division. The winner of Taylor v Froch should fight Kessler.
Kessler would knock him out late.Taylor can't take power shots at SMW,his jab wouldn't bother Kessler.
Don't you see that this is always the story about Taylor: "IF he gets in shape and uses some of his experience..." - if only he had stayed focued when he knocked down Pavlik in the first fight... - if only he had a little better stamina in the Pavlik rematch... - if only he would have followed Manny's gameplan in various fights... Taylor rarely puts and end to question marks. He has the potential to beat Kessler but not the ability to maximize his potential. Kessler has shown again and again that he doesn't give anything away, to beat him someone has to earn the win all the way.
when looking at this fight you have to take the pavlik 2 fight into considertion especially. pavlik v taylor 2 is a fight where pavlik basically fought in a european stand up style from the outside jab jab/straight right and was able to fight competitivley for 12 rounds with his extra stamina pulling out 11 and 12 for the win. kessler IMO has the best version of the stand up european style that i have seen in my time watching boxing and i can see kessler being able to impose his style onto taylor if they were to meet. it would be a good competitive fight though, and a fight i would like to see take place this year.
i think the only thing that taylor has over kessler is speed and there isnt a huge distance between them with that kessler by late KO
Lots of people picking Kessler on here, even by stoppage, without considering his own ability to take a shot. IMO these guys are pretty evenly matched. Taylor probably has the edge when it comes to raw athleticism - speed and reflexes - while Kessler probably comes in with better fundamentals and more focus. I think the outcome of this fight would largely depend on how each guy reacts to being hit by the other one. The reason I say this is that they've both shown some hesitation when it comes to their willingness to take big shots and keep coming forward - Taylor moreso than Kessler, but that is to be expected considering JT's level of past competition. I don't think Kess has faced anyone that presents the same challenges as a game Taylor - speed, skill, and power (I think we can all assume Jermain hits harder than Joe). Mikkel leaves himself open for counter right hands and his chin would definitely get tested in this fight. I've got Kessler as the favorite in this fight right now, but only slightly.
But Taylor does not have that great power. Can you name a single top level opponent he has stopped? He had a chance to get stoppages against junior middleweight like Spinks and Ouma as a fully fledged middleweight. He couldn't stop Lacy on his last legs. Not many of his early stoppages were of the devastating variety. He is nothing more than a solid puncher, I base that on his ability to get the attention of good fighters. No more than that - there is simply not the evidence. I agree with the rest of your observations. Neither is the sort of guy to walk through fire to land something, so we could expect a chess match. Until somebody is tired or hurt at least.
I never said that Taylor has truly great power, but it's definitely good enough to get Kessler's attention. And if you look at the top level fighters he's faced since becoming champion, it's not surprising he's not stopped any of them: Hopkins - great defense, never been stopped Wright - great defense, never been stopped Ouma - cast iron chin, never been KO'd Spinks - great defense, knew he was chinny from Zab KO so he ran from Taylor all night Pavlik - never been stopped, not even after a 12 round beating from a 170 lb Hopkins, but Taylor had him down in 2 Lacy - never been stopped, Taylor had him hurt and hanging on at least 3 times Remember that if Taylor was a better finisher, nobody would care about Kelly Pavlik right now. Pavlik said, "The kid hits like a mule," after their first fight. So yeah, I think he could get Kessler's attention.