Chad. Simply the better fighter who is a big enough G to go to his weight and his backyard to fight. Everything is stacked against him. You'd better believe HBO will be all but outright rooting for Ward to win. Go Chad Go!
Weight drained guy vs stay at home, utterly dirty mfer who can get away with anything in his home town. I'm inclined for the latter.
I don't understand at what point people started believing Dawson is not as highly skilled as Ward. He holds every advantage. Power, speed, strength, length (no homo). Dawson focused beats everyone under heavyweight.
Advantages: Dawson: reach (longer jab); height (longer legs and given his wide stand, he should be able to pivot out of the way fast); athleticism Ward: everything else except for chin and power (where they are about even) I agree with Pimp C's breakdown (the orthodox position) Dawson will probably look amazing in the first couple of rounds, using his jab, reach and athleticism, like he always does, and then Ward is going to start working his way inside and do what he always does so well. By the late rounds, Ward is going to catch Dawson again and again - if Pascal could, Ward can too! I cannot see Dawson winning more than 4-5 rounds. I can easily see Ward winning 7-8 rounds. Final scores will probably be something like 8-4 Ward.
Though SOG's alias makes me cringe, I like and respect him as a fighter. Share the same respect for Chad. If Chad comfortably makes the weight I think Chad wins in a close one. If Ward wins, I would call this the best win of his career thus far.