I think Eubank Jr wins. The fight will be close in the first half, but in the second half I think Eubank Jr pulls away. Eubank Jr has absolutely mad stamina. It's ridiculous. In the late rounds, Eubank will have the edge. Groves therefore has to bag early rounds by boxing and moving. Groves can punch, but that isn't going to hurt Eubank too much. And even if it does, Eubank Jr won't even care in the slightest. He'll just keep on coming. Problem is, you can't tire Eubank Jr out. He's just relentless. The pressure will get to Groves. He will stay calm, but it'll get to him eventually. I don't think Eubank at SMW has the same pop as he did as MW, so Groves' great chin will hold up. One thing for sure, is that this fight goes to points. Groves can move, but he doesn't have the movement of someone like BJS. Groves has to come in light, focus on movement. If he stands in front of Eubank he's getting slaughtered. That's why Groves loses. He can't get off the same, powerful punches while moving and focusing more on his jab. He has to move more than usual, that reduces his power. That's why he loses. He doesn't have good enough movement to pull this off. His movement is good, but not good enough. He is ahead slightly on the scorecards after the first 6 rounds, but the second set of 6 will be domination for Eubank Jr, giving him a 116-112 win.
The thing people tend to miss about Jr. is, he's by nature incredible conservative, I'd even say he's risk adverse. That's the reason why he lost the first 6 or 7 rounds against BJS, he was in with a guy with a better skillset, that could counter him with relative ease, and he was skittish as hell. He basically waited for him to gas, hoping he could finish him off late, but he has average power, and Saunders still slipped almost everything he threw. He's not someone who's just going to go balls to the walls and risk eating a counter like Chudinov or Cox, swinging wildly trying to outwork Groves early, he's going to try to pick his spots, and if Groves can catch him coming in, those spots will become increasingly fewer and farther between. He had come forward brawlers in his last few fights, and even had a few issues with them, he held against Chudinov, far too much early, it was point deduction worthy IMO. Spike, Yildirim and Blackwell tagged him clean far too often. Abe is old, and was tailor made for him, he laid back and waited to counter AA when he came in, then AA who is cautious as well, would cover up and let him tee off. Groves, won't do that, he'll be looking for counters amidst the flurry, and Jr. knows that, so he probably won't risk that either. This will be a chess match, mark my words, CEJ will fear being caught with counters and handing Groves a bunch of early rounds, and won't be willing to wear down Groves early, and if he doesn't do that, who's to say Groves will gas late? Also who's to say how good Jr. chin really is, Saunders, Spike and Blackwell stunned him, he hid it well, but not well enough, his chin isn't as good as his old man's, and if anyone can exploit that, its a much bigger better harder puncher and boxer. Groves is basically an orthodox Saunders with a KO punch, Eubank is going be tentative as hell.
I think Froch hated Groves, because Groves was able to get under his skin and **** with him better than anyone he's been in the ring with, and he'd hate Jr. equally if they had to fight, because Jr. would do the same, only worse. Now that they've fought each other, and Froch stopped him twice, he seems to actually kind of like Groves now too. Maybe he is playing a character, but personally I don't buy that, he strikes me as genuinely full of himself, that happens with entitled rich kids all the time. Maybe I'm just one of the guys in the "hate him" equation.
I couldn't see him as someone like Joshua, who just oozes absolute **** in every department, all areas covered wanker. I see Jnr as weird and major competitive when he gets in the ring and full of himself, with major discipline outside the ring. This is the weird bit. Every time I see him he reminds me more and more of Prince William when he speaks
That's the one. I could see Groves being pressured at some stage, like its slipping away or Jnr's coming on strong and he finds a spot mid flurry and its a game changer !
You watch his fights with your eyes closed don't you? In the Saunders fight he didn't get countered very often at all and hardly easily, the only reason Saunders had some early success is because Jr tried to out box him and took upon the role of counter puncher. Jr had never really been the counter punching type but I guess he wanted to beat him at his own game and Billy was a little sharper early rounds and Jr took a while to figure him out. Once Jr started fighting to his own strengths he basically dominated the show. Jr has never been risk adverse, his ego would not allow him to be. He has taken some blows from lesser fighters because he backs his chin and likes taking risks, when he wants to be defensively sound he has great defensive ability. Jr might have clinched Chudinov a fair bit and he might have even deserved to be penalized, but if he was he would have stopped very quickly and he gave that poor bloke a hell of a beating. Jr has never really implemented that game plan since any way.
I watch even closer than you, and apparently without my love goggles on. Eubank is either a backfoot counter puncher, or an ambush style flurrying volume puncher, who only fights in spurts, the mother****er literally fights 30 seconds a round, he glides around the ring like a cocky lion, flicking out his pithy jab any time anyone comes near him, then jumps in and flurries once or twice and then back to pacing around the ring. Also, usually the ambush flurries are triggered by a halfway decent counter he lands causing the other guy to cover him.
Rooting for Groves, but picking CEJ. CEJ is younger and hungrier, Groves is a bit past prime. I still maintain that younger Groves in Froch I was better than today's version. The stylistic advantage for Groves is overestimated, actually Groves doesn't like it when his opponents throw a lot and put him under pressure. When put under pressure, Groves needs all his self-control to stay calm and keep a clear head. Vs Chudinov he was having problems and ended up going to war, fortunately Chudinov had little defence and not the best chin. Unless Groves can get CEJ out by Round 7/8 or so he'll get overwhelmed by CEJ's workrate and pressure and get stopped late.
I think Groves has seen more top-level action, but CEJ is better than I initially thought. Real 50-50 pick 'em for me. CEF for his youth and raw aggression, Groves for experience and coolness at top-level. Looking forward to this!
I don't trust Groves confidence post-Froch. Pre-Froch Groves this is an easy pick. Still going with Groves, but wouldn't be shocked in the slightest if he folds.
me WAR GROVES Not sure Groves has or has ever had the gas tank though. Eubank boring ass decision is most likely.