I know for most it's the striking that they love about MMA, for me it's the submission aspect. Here's my reckoning division by division today. And whether or not I think it likely they can win championship gold. HW: Werdum 50/50 LHW: unsure MW: Jacare very unlikely WW: Maia very unlikely LW: unsure FW: Ortega 50/50 BW: unsure FLW: unsure
I was really high on Ortega going into last nights fight, that just iced my expectations of the guy. Would not be surprised to see him holding gold next year. Scrappy as hell, decent striking, lethal submissions.... Think he has record for consecutive 3rd round finishes.
I'd favor Holloway something like 70/30 or 80/20... But if he can get a hold of his neck...... He's got that Maia/Palahares like it factor going for him, he can probably sub anyone in the division on a good night.
Swanson didn't exactly mess up, he just left his neck unguarded twice but neither time looked in imminent danger. I think this kind of explosive sub attack can beat anyone at the right time. Thats why guys like Mir, Werdum, Nog, Barnett were all so successful. Obviously Werdum and Nog took it next level with their striking and conditioning but still give any of those guys an inch and they'll tap you quicker than you realise it will mess up. Maia has that about him but it took him too long to get his striking adequate and by the time he got the big fights he was too old. Ortega looks like he can take a punch, he's still young enough and he can pose a threat to Holloway. With Max's conditioning, reflexes and timing he isn't going to get out struck any time soon, I'd imagine someone at his level knows how to stuff a takedown as well, but Ortega brings a new threat with standing guillotines. As an afterthought, when was the last time anyone pulled guard as successful as he did last night. Proper old school type BJJ attack, most these days go for the single leg and positional dominance, locking a guillotine and pulling guard is a good throwback. It's too early to say and maybe Max will just pepper him from range and stop him, but I don't see Edgar nor Mendes beating Holloway so I think Ortega has the best shot.
I agree with all the people you named. I'll take a stab at the unsures, though I see why you're uncertain. LHW: I'm assuming Jones is out for a while. Cormier is the best grappler and is the current champion. I'll say Glover is probably the best submission guy in the top 15. Glover's chances at becoming champ are slim to none. LW: Khabib is the best grappler, and stands a great chance at winning the title. If he can keep his health together. I'll say Pettis is the best submission guy. Pettis submitted Bendo, Gilbert and Do Bronx(at FW); all very competent grapplers. Pettis was champion but those days are looking to be further and further away. BW: Faber and he has little to no chance of winning a title. He's retired? Well, $hit...I'm struggling here FLW: Demetrius Johnson has won 4 of his last 7 by submission and is the current champion.
