Why AJ supporters say Fury can only win by coming in light and boxing

On some level they all accept that Fury is the vastly superior boxer and know that AJ losing on points to a more skilled fighter who's moving around a lot is no disgrace. They wouldn't like it if AJ lost this way but at the same time, Fury knocking AJ out would be 10x more painful for them. Boxing is on a par with MMA as the most primal sport: outlanding an opponent and winning a decision without badly hurting him is inherently inconclusive and doesn't usually look impressive if done by running away, while knocking them out cold or (to a slightly lesser extent) stopping them in brutal fashion is a symbolic killing; victory under the law of the jungle. If Fury stops AJ impressively, he will be generally regarded as an ATG and seen by many as not just the best British heavyweight of all time but the best heavyweight of all time with a very strong claim to that title. AJ blew any theoretical chance of that when he suffered the most humiliating defeat of all time to a stubby, morbidly obese, short-notice, 25/1 Mexican underdog, in which AJ was splattered all over the canvas 4 times before he quit. AJ’s body language was very shaky before the Ruiz fight; the occasion fighting outside Britain for the first time clearly got to him and this was against a far lower calibre opponent, on a much smaller stage, whereas Fury always produces his best performances at the highest level. Some AJ supporters such as David Haye obviously see AJ as a defacto bodyguard for Lennox Lewis's legacy (the last great black heavyweight) rather than a prospective great in his own right. An AJ win would also help to protect the historical legacies of relatively small heavyweights like Ali and Holmes as AJ is likely to be 240 lbs at 6'6 to Fury's 270 lbs at 6'8. Conversely, a Fury demolition would support the notion that the 220lbs, 6'3 heavyweights of the 60's and 70's couldn't compete with any consistency against modern 240+, 6'5+ lbs super-heavyweights, let alone 270 lbs, 6'8 Fury.

They say things like "Fury should get down to 247 like he was in the Kevin Johnson fight", knowing that this would weight-drain Fury, reduce his power, sap his stamina, make him brittle and diminish his punch resistance (even aside from the fact that the scales had been rigged and Fury was actually 256 lbs in the Wlad fight). Fury is a far bigger man than AJ; early in AJ's pro career, the naturally skinny but now pumped-up bodybuilder boxed as low as the late 220's, whereas Fury debuted at a chunky 260 as a teenager. When built for speed in his early 20’s, Fury's body was very different to how it is now that he's matured and put on so much weight. Even in the mid 250's 15 months into his comeback he was badly weight-drained against Wallin: his body has adapted to being 19.5 stone as John Fury noted. They downplay Fury's power to comfort themselves and because they don't want to see him test AJ's highly questionable punch resistance or his confidence in his chin, knowing what the smaller puncher Ruiz did to him, how cautious AJ was even pre-Ruiz against the even lighter puncher Parker and what Fury did physically and psychologically to Wilder in the rematch, who was not just taller, rangier and more explosive with faster feet but probably stronger chinned, more determined, with a better gas tank and more confident than AJ will be.

Conveniently, the AJ fans want AJ to weigh in at around 244: just 3 pounds lighter than Fury in this hypothetical. This would of course give AJ great confidence as he would know that Fury was wary by his power, that he's coming to box and run and thus probably won't be knocking him out, that AJ will be the bulkier, stronger man in the ring and that if it goes to a points decision (as would be Fury’s only likely path to victory in this hypothetical) AJ will be favoured as the aggressor and the fighter that the boxing industry wants to win, stealing at least a draw and quite possibly a victory. Conversely, let’s say Fury comes in about the same size as Wilder 2 or slightly bigger at 270-275. The AJ fans will say that AJ will be happy with this because Fury's aggression allegedly plays into AJ's hands tactically but the reality is very different. AJ has talked in the past about his physical presence in the ring and what an advantage it is and he's right. He has nearly always been bigger and usually much bigger than his opponents but for the first time, he will be facing a man a couple of inches taller and 2.5 stone heavier who makes him look and feel like a small man, in and out of the ring. Psychologically, he will know that Fury is the real heavyweight in there, that he's coming for him with as much confidence and aggression that he came at Wilder with, that AJ is just another Wilder to him, that Fury's punch power, punch resistance and physical strength will be the greatest they've ever been and that he risks once again being bodied by a big fat white man. These fears will wreak havoc with AJ's mind and will prevent him from sleeping the night before the fight, much like the nervous Israel Adesanya admitted after he was defeated by the relatively unheralded underdog but much bigger Jan Blachowicz. AJ will constantly be caught in two minds on how to approach Fury and will be half-beaten before he even enters the ring.

By a kind of collective, unconscious intelligence, AJ fans want to spread the meme to those outside their circle and even into the Fury camp itself that Fury can't win on the front foot or that it's at the very least an extremely dangerous strategy and that the best way to win is to weight-drain himself, run and hope the judges don’t steal it from him. This is, knowingly or not, a collective deception by AJ and Lewis fans who wish the worst on Fury when he steps into the ring. When Fury weighs in at 270-275 they're all going to be screaming "he's making a huge mistake y’know!" but absolutely cr*pping their pants, like AJ but divided by 100. AJ has a poor gas tank at the best of times and you expend more energy when you’re nervous, so if Fury comes in heavy, expect AJ to gas out early-mid and get taken out mid-late.

 

Indeed, I was mainly talking about public perceptions. H2H Fury is No.1 already and the fighters that push him closest are the best post-90's heavyweights.