The strongest conventional theories are: 1. Wlad was 41 years old and less athletic than he had been in years gone by 2. Wlad had generally fought cautiously in his previous 23 fights and 13 years post-Brewster 1, so these conservative habits were too deeply ingrained But there’s another theory worthy of consideration: Wlad didn’t want to KO Joshua with every fibre of his being as Andy Ruiz did 1. Wlad and Joshua had a close relationship several years prior in training camp, with Wlad and Joshua calling each other “little bro” and “big bro” respectively 2. Wlad told Joshua post-fight “The more you shine, the more I shine”, believed/hoped that Joshua would go on to become a long-reigning champion who would unify all of the belts, "represent the heavyweight division better than Fury" and “avenge” his humiliating loss to Fury for him if Fury returned 3. Wlad said several months later that “I would never change the outcome” and “I won a lot of respect that I never won even when I won my world titles”, rejecting the opportunity to avenge his loss to Joshua, even with a reported £22 million on the table in what would have been his 30th championship fight and 70th overall (as well as a huge trilogy fight at 42 if Wlad won the rematch) and while acknowledging that Joshua was vulnerable 4. Wlad wore grey trunks; the colour associated with ageing and monotony (The passing of the torch? Didn’t want to take any of the shine off establishment golden boy Joshua?) rather than his usual red 5. If Wlad had taken Joshua the distance, outboxed him and was controversially denied a decision win in London, he would have won a moral victory while preserving Joshua’s unbeaten record, motivation and confidence
There is no theory here--they have discussed it. Vitali advised him that Joshua was blown and just ride to victory. It backfired. No mystery at all.
That doesn't solve the problem because Wlad used his better judgement and ignored Vitali before: Vitali implored him to retire post-Brewster and Wlad banished him from the camp preparing for Peter. So it's still a mystery why Wlad listened to Vitali. He was more experienced than Vitali as a boxer in his own right and must have known that there was a good chance of being robbed in London even if Joshua didn't catch a second wind, which was always a possibility.
I don't think it's a gigantic mystery. There were other instances when Wlad did listen to Vitali, whose opinion he clearly did value. For instance, I believe Vitali was the one who advised Wlad not to throw with full force against Byrd. Regardless, after Wlad had seized the momentum, AJ hung in there and persevered, before rallying to turn the tide which enabled him to score the late stoppage. Either way, I thought it was a strong showing from Wlad. It was the type of loss that seemingly enhanced his reputation.
"whose opinion he clearly did value" I have no doubt that's true but if Wlad had strong convictions about finishing Joshua then he would have ignored Vitali in this crucial instance as he did before. For one reason or another he lacked that conviction. It's often said that a fighter "didn't leave it all out there". I don't believe that Wlad wasn't trying to win but there are degrees of trying to win or trying to win by KO. Ruiz clearly wanted to stop Joshua with every fibre of his being but I don't think Wlad did. It has implications for future matchups where the opponent will want to beat and KO Joshua with every fibre of their being. "I thought it was a strong showing from Wlad. It was the type of loss that seemingly enhanced his reputation." Considering his age and the expectations going in, it was a strong technical and athletic performance from Wlad. But there's a lingering feeling that he snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. I think it's a loss that has aged badly and may well continue to do so. Ruiz took rounds 4 and 5 off but he was back on Joshua in round 6, he didn't take his foot of the gas for four consecutive rounds as Wlad did. Usyk comprehensively outboxed a far more experienced version of Joshua twice. And if Wilder KO's Joshua it will look even worse for Wlad as he would have two mutual opponents with Wilder (very arguably Wlad's best two opponents) and have performed worse against both. Not taking the rematch was also a very questionable decision considering that it was a winnable fight for huge money and another shot at redemption. He wanted to clear Joshua's path and boost his legacy rather than thinking selfishly about his own personal legacy.
Wlad himself has said that the not just the loss but how tough the fight was and the aggression he was forced to fight with won him a lot of respect and silenced a few doubters. Those that claim he was retired by fury years before annoy me. He fought fury 17 months previous. He didn't retire and the reason for his inactivity was down to fury messing him about over the rematch prior to walking away from the sport himself whilst being investigated by the anti doping authorities. Granted wlad was 41 when AJ fought him but I doubt there were many other top 10 heavyweights wlad would've lost to at the time. Let's not forget that AJ had only had 18 pro fights beforehand. It was a cracking fight that happened at the oefrct time for both fighters.
Wlad had already been hit and hurt by Joshua several times before he put AJ down. That's the first time anybody had seen AJ that hurt so nobody and most importantly wlad didn't know how he'd react when hurt. Maybe he was a little too over cautious but he used his experience in that sense and also to avoid possibly gassing out if he didn't manage to finish the Job. Ironically enough, he did exactly what Joshua should've done after he put Ruiz down in their 1st fight and for the exact same reasons. That's the danger of trying too hard to get the finish.... What if you will onto something in the process? Plus, in the 13 years prior and since manny steward changed his style, he was known for his patient approach. Accused of being boring. In most of those fights he'd break opponents down and stop them late- usually with no more than 3 or 4 punches. He put Joshua down hard and landed several clean punches without stopping him. That in itself probably caused him to become more cautious.
Yet he ignored him on other occasions, which shows that Wlad lacked the personal conviction to finish Joshua. That's where the speculation comes in.
That's in line with: "The strongest conventional theories are: 1. Wlad was 41 years old and less athletic than he had been in years gone by 2. Wlad had generally fought cautiously in his previous 23 fights and 13 years post-Brewster 1, so these conservative habits were too deeply ingrained" I agree with these theories but I think there's more to it. I don't think Wlad had the burning desire to finish Joshua that Ruiz did, that Wilder will have (assuming the fight gets made). I think he was in two minds to some degree.
He didn't ignore him on that one. That is all. Look, if you want to think there is more to this, then go right ahead. There isn't. It is a non-question. He took his brother's advice. It is completely irrelevant that other times he didn't.
I'm sure both wlad and ruiz had the same burning desire to win though. Ruiz saw his shot at the crown and went for it but it wasn't a one off. He's gone for the kill to stop quite a few previous opponents when they're hurt. Wlad has always had a more disciplined approach since his last stoppage loss. Why would he abandon a winning formula and risk being stopped with something avoidable on that massive stage? He may have known he was having his last ever fight and wanted to know he'd done everything right even in the event of a loss. In that sense he genuinely did leave it all in the ring that night, just not when most folk would've liked him to. Absolutely, he would've been in two minds. In fairness to him, whilst he didn't fully open up on a hurt Joshua, he did press and land more blows for the remainder of that round than we'd seen him do for years.
6. He was a shot to pieces retired old name fighter with one win in four years who never fought again. Barry Hearns paid him a career high purse plus retirement retainer to show up and he played his part to perfection, he probably didn’t expect josh to be so fragile. “I’m selling these mugs a narrative here koogs!”