Why Hopkins will beat Calzaghe...

some well thought out points mate - good to see this thread

1) Hopkins is experienced and successful fighting against southpaws. He has a terrific lead right that will constantly keep Calzaghe guessing and off guard.

calzaghe's pretty successful against right-handers too


3) Calzaghe many times throws wide punches when he gets aggressive. When he throws wide, Hopkins will strike right down the middle and land all day.

not sure hopkins will have the time to 'land all day', he might have to spend some time defending those 'wide punches'

4) Calzaghe needs to keep distance to win. He many times backs off to rattle off combos. Bernard has great in-fighting ability and bully tactics, enabling him to prevent Calzaghe's attack.

i don't quite understand this one, 'he backs off to rattle off combos, bernard's in-fighting enables him to prevent calazghe attacks'? if he's backing off where's the in-fighting?

5) Calzaghe has never been roughed up by the likes of Hopkins. Hopkins upsets you mentally, and wears on you physically. Rarely do you see a fighter fighting Hopkins anywhere near "fresh" by the end of the fight. Calzaghe has not been pushed to those limits.

fair play, no-one better than hopkins for a bit of wearing down

6) Calzaghe loves fighting where he is popular. He likes everyone loving him (who doesn't?). Calzaghe now knows he is entering someone else's domain. Even if there are Calzaghe fans, he's on American soil. How will he handle the pressure and nervousness about a decision in his first fight in the USA? He will probably try "too hard" and leave himself open.

another fair point BUT too many questions and probably's to really sound as if you're that convinced


7) Calzaghe's balance when bouncing in and out of action isn't the best. You can see in many of his fights that he gets "tripped up" or has issues remaining on balance. Hopkins knows everything about leverage, punches, and every dirty trick in the book needed to "force" a knockdown.

got me there

8 )Hopkins has world-class defense. Calzaghe cannot simply rely on his method of throwing 20 punches in a row when he will be hitting shoulders, forearms, and air. That will tire him out. He's not used to missing the target, which will also wear on him mentally.

if you're saying calzaghe hitting hopkins' arms will tire calzaghe out i'm sure being punched on the arms aint gonna do bernie any good either

9) Hopkins is used to talking trash, being in crazy press conferences, causing commotion, and so on. The bright lights, big stage, and pressure influence Calzaghe.

calzaghe looks cool as a cucumber

10) Calzaghe has not fought nearly as high a level of competition. Forget weight classes, Hopkins has fought many more styles, and complex fighters. Calzaghe has fought many one dimensional or "standard" fighters.

yep, fair point, advantage bernie

11) Calzaghe has never taken a light heavyweight punch. Hopkins has.

calzaghe's first time at the weight means definitely advantage bernie, BUT, you don't know how hard calazghe's been hit before and he's no way given up too much in size, if anything

12) Calzaghe overpowers his opponents. He will not overpower Hopkins.

calzaghe's about speed, angles, skill not really a power-based fighter

13) Calzaghe has never been in a battle of mental skill in the ring. Hopkins is the master of it.

calzaghe's smart too but yeah, bernie's the master

just my thoughts ya know. i'm still saying calzaghe by VERY close decision.

 

i still see Calzaghe's hand speed, although diminished, bothering Hopkins enough to squeak out an uneventful decision....Kessler would blast damn near every light heavy out there right now(except Johnson), and Calzaghe handled him without being hurt at all....Hopkins' speed has been diminished since Trinidad, he's been winning with his caginess and supreme tactics....the thing is Calzage showed with Kessler that he also is a tactical master, and his greater speed will take the cake....had this fight happend before Hopkins turned 37, Hopkins would still have enough speed to repeatedly catch Calzaghe with that lead right of his....but i can't see it happening right now....Calzaghe 115-113 Hopkins

 

There is an argument that can be made against almost every point. Like I said; I LOVE that you broke down why you are taking BHop though :good . We need more posters like that because this place would be boring if everyone agreed (or disagreed and didn't say why)

He hasn't fought a southpaw LIKE Joe Calzaghe though, which is what makes him one of a kind. He is extremely awkward and thats what makes fighting him hard as hell; because no matter how many southpaws you spar with no one in the world can even pretend to emulate his style; its awkward and unique. Plus JC knows that BHops best punch (and what he's relying on for the fight) is his lead right, so he should be ready for it and no doubt will be circling BHop to his left to try and negate it.

The thing here is that JC knows he has to keep his workrate up or he will surely lose this fight. He has an iron chin and will surely take some right hands from BHop but don't expect him to slow down one bit.

I agree with this if JC gets sloppy

JC does need to keep his distance to win and I think he is definitely quick enough to accomplish it. He will dart in, unleash combos, and get out. I don't think anyone will argue that he is much quicker than BHop and generally doesn't run out of steam. He will surely know that he will lose to BHop on the inside so I don't expect to see him there much.

JC has already said MANY times before that he won't allow BHop to break him mentally, and JC is one very tough mental fighter. I disagree that JC has not been pushed to the limits mentally. He has been an underdog his share of times and fought great opposition (not on BHops level but still great opposition imo). He took Kesslers best shots and didn't falter or shy away. JC is the energizer bunny and I doubt he gasses himself out.

Im sure he will be open at times, but nothing more than usual. Like I said; JC is very strong mentally and he knows what he has to do to prepare for this fight. Have you seen any of the interviews where he talks about how Hatton let Mayweather get to him and how he wasn't all there mentally by the time the fight came around? He will be ready imo.

His style cannot be compared to anyone elses because it is unique. The only time I remember him being "tripped up" in his last fight was when he took a solid uppercut from Kess. Sure he has been off balance before, but I haven't seen it to an extent where it needs to be worried about. I would be more worried if he became a statue and didn't move around like he normally does. Its just his awkward style.

JC is prepared to throw A LOT of punches. BHops defense is indeed world class but to say that all of his punches are going to miss is just wrong. By JC throwing tons of punches he will force BHop to fire back to get his respect. BHop doesn't have the best movement which can be very bad against a swarmer style.

JC fights at one of the biggest venues in the world

I don't want to get into this argument but JC has fought some tough opposition. No doubt the nod goes to BHop here but Kessler, Lacy, Bika, Veit, Eubank, Sheika, Reid are by no means easy fights

He took Kesslers best punches and personally I think thats a tougher punch to take then any BHop has taken

I disagree. Calzaghe "outworks" his opponents and "overwhelms" them. I think he can do it to BHop too

Calzaghe has been taken to deep waters and tested. It can be argued that his biggest mental tests have came BEFORE fights, and he never fails to deliver in the ring. JC goes in the ring and does his thing regardless and imo he is very underestimated in terms of adaptability. He adapts if his style isn't working and im sure he will find a way for that offense of his to get through.

The thing is that he doesn't need to age overnight. He has already noticeably aged over the last half-dozen years.

 

Kessler will have outweighed Hopkins, despite fighting at 168. Kessler also hits pretty hard. Calzaghe will also take a better punch at 175.

 

I am a Calzaghe fan, but this is patently wrong. Watch Hopkins/Tarver or Hopkins/Trinidad, Hopkins' MAIN attribute is his ability to shift and move away from danger and into positions to strike.

 

I meant Calzaghes swarming style. It will be hell for BHop imo cause JC will have all kinds of awkward punches coming at him that cannot be compared to a bloated past-it Trinidad or the limited Tarver

 

Hopkins right-hand is the main danger, no doubt. That is the punch that carries his slim hopes in my view

Calzaghe clearly has 'world class' defence. Maybe you have a different meaning of the phrase 'world class', but to me it implies of a standard that competes at world level. Nobody mistakes him for Pernell Whitaker, but his defence is good. See Kessler, once he made the adjustment to jab he was not caught often against a precise puncher. It stands to reason a guy that throws 1000 punches is more open, that's just common sense, but it shouldn't be mistaken for poor defence.

3 is presuming Calzaghe goes into the trenches. It depends on Joe's mindset. He will come out fairly cautiously, and take control with the jab. I don't know why people expect him to bullrush Hopkins, he'll give him more respect, as he did with Kessler. The wide punches are only likely to come into play when Calzaghe feels in control. Joe was very straight with his punching against Kessler, I don't expect this to change against a crafty fighter, Joe ain't ****ing stupid.

I don't really understand 4

Joe has definitely been roughed up, by dirty fighters like Bika and Reid. They aren't of Hopkins level, but he has still experienced it which prepares him. From a physical viewpoint, he certainly won't be overmatched in either stamina (obviously) or physically. I've never seen anybody bully Joe on the inside, he is deceptively strong for such a wirey looking SMW. I've seen him throw much bigger looking guys around like ragdolls. From what I've seen of Joe's training he looks much healthier at LHW, and I expect him to be even stronger. If you are expecting Hopkins to bully him inside I think you are in for a big shock.

Impossible to say how he'll fair in the US. Speculation at this stage

Joe can be off balance, and this is the only way I see it remaining close. If Hopkins can score a number of knockdowns with the right hand this way.

As somebody mentioned, if Joe is rattling off 20 punch combinations chances are Hopkins isn't firing much back. These are just rounds in the bank for Joe. It certainly doesn't help Hopkins to be punched on the arms, and Joe can do it all night. If Hopkins gives up cheap rounds whilst Joe punches his guard he'll have to come out of his shell. Advantage Joe.

9 is impossible to say, but it's unlikely. Joe has been around the business for 20 years, with the confidence of never having been beat. We aren't talking about a novice here. I think its fairly unlikely to bother Joe, but this is speculation at this stage.

Can't be bothered getting into resume debates we've done it to death, but it's actually quite close

Remember, Hopkins is only a LHW because he is in the twilight of his career and can't make 160 anymore. He does NOT punch like a true LHW, not even close. This is backed up by his last knockout being how long ago? Against a smaller guy too. Whilst we are on punching power, let's not forget the added weight is likely to aid Joe.

Already been over the physical aspect, I believe it will be fairly even

I'd debate whether Joe has been in a battle of 'mental skill' but its easier to just point out the incredible ring generalship and adaptability Joe has. Joe can very much compete in this respect, make no mistake. You could also turn this the other way round. When has Hopkins had to deal with a guy that can at least compete with his generalship and ring IQ? He's used to calling the shots

I wanted to simply counter your reasons instead of pointing out why and how Joe will win, I'll do it closer to the fight. Good post though

 

Nice thread. Finally some quality! A few comments:

Yeah I noticed this as well. Sometimes you almost think there's no guard at all, but he's going to be cautious against Hopkins. Hopkins will wait for him to unleash one of these flurries so he can pop a straight one.

Yes, Calzaghe does need his distance. Of course he does know how to infight as well, but this is basically Bernard's home area and he knows it with his eyes closed.

The mental aspect is very important, and Hopkins definitely makes an impact. If not before the fight, then definitely during it.

No, I don't think this actually bothers him. I don't quite see Calzaghe like that. In fact, I would say the opposite. I think he enjoys being an underdog (not that there really is an underdog in this fight, or at least I don't see one).

Calzaghe will need to bring something extra. To be honest, the biggest anticipation for me lies in seeing what exactly each of these guys bring to the ring Saturday night. What's the plan? Are any of them going to go on the offensive, considering that they're both very strong defensively?

Yeah he's done it all. This is often the point where American fighters have an advantage over their British counterparts. Flloyd to Hatton, Tarver to Woods. With Hopkins and Calzaghe I think the mental games were still a bit light, but there's still a week to go.

The weigh-in might turn out to be quite interesting.

Let's put it this way: Calzaghe has never fought a name as "big" as Hopkins, but Hopkins has already fought people within Calzaghe's calibre. This isn't necessarily a disadvantage, because Calzaghe brings an element of surprise with him. We don't fully know what to expect.

Maybe not, but Kessler is known as a hard hitter.

 

Bonehead

 

wrong. Mikkel could barely land his straght right, why would a old hopkins be able to do it?

wrong. Joe C has excellent defense. Going back to my point above, joe has a canny ability to avoid that straight right. He knows its a money shot for a orthodox to land on a southpaw so hes prepared for it. Now hopkins right uppercut, thats a whole different story that Joe C has to deal with...

wrong. Hopkins is too old and if you look at what taylor did to bhop using that same strategy you will see hopkins has trouble landing with someone who is all over him throwing shots.

I believe joe fights rather well on the outside.

bika pushed him. and at his stage, sakio is much stronger, bigger, and quicker than hopkins is now. Hopkins just aint as fast as he used to be.

I think the fact a lot of americans talk **** on him, he will defetinly have a point to prove. The only problem is that with Joe, it motiavates him more and makes him a better fighter come fight nightl.

Just make sure to bet on a joe victory. The only way hopkins will win this is by opening a cut to limit joe's view with a headbutt, and then land a hail mary uppercut which joe seems vulnerable to.

 

Agreed, the same way that those who think Calzaghe is 'a sack of ****' are complete fools?

 

#6. calzaghe could care less where this fight is. he is a true professional and all that matters to him is getting in the ring getting it on.

#7 calzaghe has tremendous balance. are you kidding?

what LHW punch did hopins take? Kessler hits much harder than tarver or winky.

calzaghe did not overpower kessler. thats what was so impressive about that win.

calzaghe is a much better in-fighter than hopkins.

hopkins couldn't keep jermaine off him...