Why I Belive Calzaghe will beat Hopkins

I don't know if Calzaghe is going to be tentative and get caught up in the moment because he's fighting Hopkins. He just seems so sure of himself in interviews. He's not arrogant, just confident. I think he will just come out and try to do his thing and stay busy.

Obviously, Hopkins will have to nullify that activity. And therein lies the facinating thing about this fight. Can Hopkins make Calzaghe fight his style of fight and make it ugly? I'm sure he will have some success doing this but will it be enough to the point where he is winning rounds?

Hopkins' legs and counter punching will play a key role IMO. He will need both to nullify Calzaghe's activity. Move around and make Calzaghe come after you. I don't care who you are, if you are on your toes and moving, it's hard for someone to stay busy. If they want to stay busy, they have to chase and put themselves in bad positions. And there is no one better than Hopkins at exploiting openings.

I can't wait to see what happens.

 

:good Perfect example is the PW-Quintana fight. PW was supposed to throw 100 punches a round. Quintana moved and PW missed, PW got counter punched. This is how I see the fight going.

 

I'm expecting him to box as tentative as when he fought Bika ( who actually would be an excellent sparring partner for Cal). Calzaghe was also over-confident coming off the Big Lacy victory and again in the MEN Arena in Manchester ( 26 000 brit fans in da house), dropped his hands in the second and showboated in the third, got cut in the fourth and Enzo telling him to stop showboating and clowning ( 19th defense of the IBF-WBO straps) in the fifth when he is really whacked by an overhand right, Cal turns his attention to the ref in round seven and almost gets caught by Bika again, Bika's cornermen saying that he gat nothing left in da tank in the end stretch and Enzo telling him to stop swinging and just punch straight... Adding that this is in Vegas, that Hopkins is as rough and a hardman as Bika, very much more experienced, I don't need much further evidence to sustain this belief that Calzaghe will not go tit for tat. One thing is to be confident in himself prior to the task ( never said he is arrogant) and one complete different thing is to deal with another individual and his unexpected attitudes in real time. The most that he can do is to stick to his game and not start thinking and adjusting... I already have seen a lot of guys thinking against Bernard and letting him get into their minds.

I know Max Kellerman said ( in the Winky fight) and Manny ( in the Tarver fight) that Bernard only worries on nullifying or whateva. I think Hopkins is mostly worried in winning boxing contests but he can still do plenty of damage, it's absurd to think otherwise even when underrating the Old Man. I don't think Hopkins fights ugly in the sense Salem, Bika and Reid fought Joe, those guys were just ultra-dirty and sluggish... He fights rough and tough but it's much more out of tricky manoeuvres than pure street fighting guile. Calzaghe will not have an upright, immobile target in the european style in front of him ( Veit in Germany, Kessler in Wales). Hopkins won 10 rounds to 2 against Tito and Antonio with no use of bullying or rough housing, make no mistakes about it.

I agree this has a lot to do with legs - Calzaghe forward movement and Hopkins back legs - and he will definitely look to bait Calzaghe to make him square up and not fight with his right shoulder in front. Then, Joe has to keep his eyes on Hopkins' and not lose focus, he can't just look down and jump in... I say Joe has enormous advantages at close range and always have thought so ever since Bernard came in so slow in Ecuador against Mercado and Joe swings so fast with side punches, but first he gat to loosen up, get inside and let his hands fly. No way no how Calzaghe potshots Hopkins from the distance like Jones did in DC back in 93. Calzaghe moves in reckless, Hopkins controls the distance at the millimeter and makes him pay every time.

I feel it's fascinating that the two of them are finally sharing a ring and with a win/loss deciding their career legacies. After the Hatton-Mayweather fight, the UK-US rivalry also adds incredible tension to the whole thing... There are too many reasons to make this one a close contest. Only Roy Jones beat James Toney wide in such an awaited super-fight, Joe Calzaghe is no Roy Jones Jr.

 

The more i discuss this fight, the more i want to see it right now. I really can't wait to see how the fight plays out.

 

Actually, he just gat to watch closely Hopkins against Winky in the first 20 seconds of the first round to get that precise picture you described for him, PeaBoxing. Bernard takes small steps back to keep Winky balancing himself forward, gets to the ropes, turns swiftly to circle or changes over Winky with a sharp right at the split second when Winky gets outa position. I like Joe Calzaghe's movement tho, he leads with the right foot and can make a 43 year old Bernard Hopkins lose his back foot or trap him down in the ropes and corners... The man was ABA welter, light-middle and middleweight titlist before he made his pro debut as far back as in 93. The guy has feet co-ordination and good balance when pressing forward.

 

So you're telling me that Calz doesn't have a tremendous punch output? Offensively speaking, I can see what Peaboxing is saying. Calz is also not known for his KO power, so he makes up for it by having huge punch output. Sound familar? Bhop will not be overwhelmed by his punch output, he will pick his spots.

 

He gets hit a lot, too much for my liking... Thru 8 rounds against Eubank, took 98 punches out of 244. Took total of 108 punches out of 397 against Starie ( Calzaghe landed slightly more 114 and threw less 341). Thru 4 rounds against Woodhall - took 65 punches ( 46 body, 19 head) and landed 94, Round 8 - Calzaghe landed 22 out of 64, Woodhall landed 22 out of 56. Total punches taken against Brewer 179 out of 638 ( end of round 10, had taken 83 to the body and 62 to the head). Not to mention the monster right hands he took from Reid in the fifth, the short right hand from Mitchell, the counter-right from Salem in the fourth, the uppercuts in the fifth against Kessler. And so on... He gets hit when he's looking to pound on his opponents. I think he is particularly open when his opponent comes from his left and shoots that right hand straight - plenty of examples in the Starie and Reid fights.

 

Exactly, I don't understand why so many think Joe will fight his usual fight and throw a 1000 punches and win with ease sionce hopkins will only throw like 300.

 

I agree. I've read posts about how people think BHop would've killed Calzaghe 5-6 yrs ago but Bernard did have the opportunity to fight Calzaghe back then. If he was confident of winning he would've taken it then as he was made a very good offer. So props to Bernard for making the fight now becasue I don't think it's ever been one he's really comfortable with from a stylistic perspective, as you point out. I don't see Bernard winning but neither do I see him losing badly