Why I Belive Calzaghe will beat Hopkins

Joe will impose his will? :huh How? Just by punching more? To me, that's not imposing any will. that's just doing what he normally does.

It's no secret Joe's not a big puncher @ 168. I'm fairly positive it will be worse @ 175. And trying to carry that extra weight this late inhis career just may have an effect on his stamina. The ONLY way Joe stops Hopkins is if the ref jumps the gun on a stoppage. Otherwise, this is going 12. And the later it goes, the more it benefits Hopkins IMHO.

 

Logic dictates Calzaghe will be more leery of a hard hitting counter puncher fighting in a weight he's never been. He'll be much more careful of his punches, and will fight smarter. Unfortunately, that just may take Joe C out of his comfort zone. Not so for Hops.

 

He wasn't gun shy. And handspeed or size wasn't the reason. He was waiting for Taylor to throw. Hopkins is a COUNTER PUNCHER who picks his punches. Not the same as being gunshy.

He looked better vs. Tarver since tarver was willing to punch and fight.

 

It’s the big one!! Biggest fight of the year bar none! Super Joe takes on the Executioner for Hopkins' Light Heavyweight Crown. I'm sure you've all seen the build up Hopkins' "I'll never get beat by a white boy" and all that jazz but the time has finally come for the two to square off in what is the most anticipated fight of the year. Only Hatton's foray to Vegas beats this in terms of a boxing event for us Brits - but what chance does the Welshman have? Answer; more chance than a die rolling between a one and a six!!

Going into the Hatton v Mayweather fight there was a sense of 'Hatton can do it'. No one doubted that PBF was the better boxer, but there was an aura of possibility around the Hitman. And for 9 rounds that sense remained. It all went wrong in the tenth as Mayweather showed he is a cut above! However, Calzaghe v Hopkins is completely different! I am going to put my neck on the line here and get a few things off my chest (how many more clichés can I fit into this sentence) about Hopkins; HE ISNT THAT GOOD!! He is regularly referred to as one of the greatest middleweights of all time and stepped up to light heavy to claim the title from then champion Antonio Tarver (see above). He also beat Winky Wright in his first defence of the said titles. But my problem is this… to be great you have to beat the best and avoid getting beat by also rans. Hopkins was beaten by Roy Jones Junior (RJJ) in 1993 for the IBF middleweight title. No shame in that, but RJJ is the best Hopkins has fought and he has never beaten him. After drawing against Segundo Mercado (Accrington Stanley - who are they?) he beat the Ecuadorian at the second time of asking to claim the crown which RJJ had vacated. Wins over Glen Johnson and Felix Trinidad are nice notches on his CV but Johnson is a strange fighter - capable of beating RJJ but also being beaten by Merqui Sosa and Joseph Kiwanuka (exactly). Trinidad on the other hand was a world class boxer but had come up from welterweight to fight Hopkins. Credit where it is due, Trinidad had already won titles at middleweight and this is the best win on Hopkins' CV. Hopkins then lost twice to Jermaine Taylor, who has recently been dismantled twice by Kelly Pavlik to show him up as nothing more than a hitter with a good chin.

But at light heavy Hopkins beat Antonio Tarver who only achieved his fame through beating RJJ in the rematch after RJJ had taken his titles from him. Not a great achievement for a natural 6'2" Light heavyweight against the natural middleweight. Tarver's career has since been up and down with defeats to the previously mentioned Johnson. Hopkins' other win came against Winky Wright - a natural light middleweight making a step-up.

So what happens when B-Hop faces Calzaghe? He gets beat - pure and simple. Calzaghe is one of the best boxers of our generation. He has possibly THE best jab around (Mayweather included) and is frighteningly fast. Does he have a knockout punch - I would say no but his record of 32KOs in 44 wins would disagree with me. Instead what he does have is wins over Kessler, Lacy, Veit, Richie Woodhall, Robin Reid and Chris Eubank whilst all were still in their prime (with the possible exception of Eubank who had already been beaten by Steve Collins). He has ring generalship to rival the greats and he has the ability to get off the canvas and win. Will he need that last trait here? No! Hopkins is too old, too slow and even in his prime would have been beaten by Calzaghe.

I've made this point with a couple of people already and they have said its blind patriotism. Calzaghe is Welsh - I have no loyalty there. This is an objective look, and just because you dont like my opinion from what I see, dont accuse me of being a Hopkins hater or Joe hugger. Calzaghe to walk over Hopkins and take his titles over twelve rounds. To go one step further, Calzaghe to never look in trouble and Hopkins to look completely out of his depth! Another argument - Oscar De La Hoya said Hopkins will win didn’t he? Yes he did. Oscar De La Hoya is also a boxing promoter who said Hatton would beat PBF. Why did he say that? Because when PBF beats Hatton, Oscar can say 'Well I tipped Hatton - PBF must be even better than we first thought. Lets have a rematch and make $10mill'. When Calzaghe retires Hopkins - don’t be surprised if De La Hoya's name gets thrown into the mix.

The future for both men? Hopkins should retire but probably wont and will earn a few more $$ for himself fighting also rans. As for Calzaghe, things are a little more complicated. RJJ fancies his chances against the Welshman in what would be Calzaghe's biggest payday. There would be a lot at risk for Joe against a still dangerous opponent. Fights against Clinton Woods or the winner of Dawson v Johnson would also make him undisputed light heavyweight champion. Don’t count on Joe stepping up to fight a natural light heavyweight though as Woods would probably have too much for him. There wouldn’t really be any point in Calzaghe going back down to super middle given that he has already beat anyone of any note so after a fight with RJJ, Super Joe may decide to start claiming his pension!

 

In the Setanta broadcast of Calzaghe-Kessler, Richie Woodhall said clearly that he thinks Bernard Hopkins and Joe Calzaghe are the most adaptable fighters in the World today ( in the weigh-in and post-fight) and Joe should be the best but, truth be told, he never fought Bernard Hopkins... Just fought Calzaghe and lost a 12th round TKO to the man who was dominated by Hopkins in Keith Holmes. In the same Setanta show, Steve Bunce admitted to be intentionally overlooking most of the long-term World Titlists of all time, including Hopkins, in his personal support for Joe Calzaghe... Last but not the least, consider that Calzaghe was seven years older than 28 year old Mikkel Kessler ( and Jeff Lacy) and Bernard Hopkins was 43 when he faced 35 year old Winky Wright... He also was almost 40 when 30 year old Hoya fought him in 2004.

 

Joe C hasn't seen real competition. I mean come on besides Kessler or MAYBE a hyped Lacy, who has he fought? He has lived a extremely sheltered life, and his first trip across the atlantic will be an interesting one for him. Don't look past Bhop b/c he's old, that's all I'm saying. Calz isn't the fountain of youth himself at 36.... 2 senior citizens battling it out. Shouldn't this be on youtube?

 

:good believe that if you want to buddy. Bhop is still a warrior... Calz hasn't fought ANYONE like him.

 

In the Taylor fights, Hopkins slowed his output because he saw something that few did before...that Taylor's stamina is awful. He knew he would come out firing, but he also knew he would tire late.

So, he let Jermain get off as many shots as he wanted early (tho hardly any landed...and of those that did, you could count the clean shots on one hand and still have fingers to use)...picking his shots carefully, landing the harder, cleaner shots. And as Jermain tired, Hopkins started landing at will and throwing more.

And if you go look at the punch stats you will be surprised at how really few more shots Taylor threw per round than Bernard when he was "clearly outworking him" as people like to point out. Its not what you will expect.

Now, go back and watch the fights with that in mind...and it is CLEAR AS DAY that what I laid out was EXACTLY what happened. It had nothing to do with output or speed, it was his gameplan.

:good

 

Taylor got Bernard on the defensive imposing his physicallity with double jabs and powershots - rights hands and left hooks - Thru 2 rounds: Bernard 7 of 32 (22%), Jermaine 15 of 72 (21%), Thru 7 rounds: Bernard 36 of 127 ( 28%), Jermaine 58 of 262 (22%), Thru 9 rounds: Bernard 51 of 185 (28%), Jermaine 69 of 346 (20%) - Taylor missed with a lot of jabs but threw and landed 3 times more than Hopkins - thru 8 rounds - Hopkins 9 jabs of 62, Taylor 24 of 180. Taylor was winning 7 rounds to 2 at the start of the 10th, and Bernard really outlanded Taylor only in that 10th round ( Hopkins 15 of 43 (35%), Taylor 3 of 19 (16%)) and hurt him seriously 50 seconds to go in that 10th with a big right on the temple as Jermaine was moving back. Hopkins still not jabbing, just looking for the powershot in the 11th, wobbled Taylor in the end but he fought back all the way till the final bell.

Bernard "Maybe the only thing I didn't do was knock him out. It wasn't like when I lost to Roy Jones and I knew I lost. This is a situation where I won and they gave it to the other guy." - BS talk as well as the 116-112 scorecard for Hopkins...

Jermaine "I burned a little too much energy in those first few rounds and I got a little winded on the end stretch... I wasted a lot of energy chasing him around and I should be cutting off the ring." Believable as well as the 115-113 scorecards ( twice).

Hopkins gave clear signs that he wouldn't be able to deal with a high output in July against Taylor when he faced Eastman in February - they landed 3 punches a piece in the 1st, 8 punches in the 2nd, 17 of 60 Hopkins ( Eastman 15 of 131 ) thru 3, 17 of 19 Hopkins in the 4th ( Eastman 6 of 51), 12 of 25 Hopkins in the fifth ( Eastman 12 of 61), only started to impose himself by midway - Hopkins 48 of 128 thru 6, Eastman 38 of 300... I have heard about economical punching but this is ridiculous...

 

But every punch counted. No wasted energy if you don't throw until you know you will hit.. correct?

 

Great post. And i agree 100%.

I just re-watched Hopkins/JT 1 again for like the 10th time and i had it 6-5-1 JT with the 1st round even. I mean there were some rounds where Hopkins did almost nothing. I think he had at least 3 rounds where his punch output was in the teens. And there was no way you could give him those rounds. At least JT was trying and staying busy.

Yeah, in the end, Hopkins might've outboxed JT in terms of his accuracy and effectiveness in both fights. But based on the way boxing is scored, i gave the fight to JT. You just can't win rounds by throwing 15 punches in certain rounds while the other guy is at least coming forward and attempting to make a fight.

I think the 2nd fight is where you will see more diverse scores because there were a lot more close rounds.

And oh yeah, the 116-112 score for Hopkins is a joke. What fight was he watching? :nut