Why I think Mosley has a genuine chance

This thread is called:

"Why I think Mosley has a genuine chance"

It is not called:

"Why I think Mosley will win"

If I had to bet on the result, I'd go with a Floyd UD, because I think Mayweather's footspeed and movement will make him to difficult for Shane to pin down, and a past-prime Shane is a pretty easy target for someone with good handspeed. My gut says Floyd runs the entire fight, boxing off the back foot, and takes a decision.


However, I'm not as certain of this as I am that Pacquiao will dominate and stop Joshua Clottey.

I think Mosley has a real, live chance in this fight.

Why?

Because of something that happened in the Mayweather-Marquez fight.

Now, don't get me wrong, Floyd was superb that night, and you don't see a genuine 12-0 shutout very often, his performance was above criticism (you can certainly criticize that a fight between a welterweight and a lightweight was even made in the first place, but I'm focusing on the performance here nothing more).

However, there were one (or maybe two) points in the fight where Floyd had his back against the ropes and Marquez landed a full-force hook flush to Floyd's chin. I think the first instance was in round two or three, and the second was later in the fight.

Now, Floyd took the punches very well, they didn't seem to hurt him at all, in fact after the 1st shot I'm sure he smiled for everyone to see that he could absorb JMM's best shots.

All well and good. But, Marquez was a natural feather who had only had 2 fights at light, and had then jumped 2 weight classes. He looked bloated and overweight on the night, and his speed and explosiveness had clearly been compromised by packing on the weight. Floyd has a good chin, but he has been rocked before by guys who weren't exactly Julian Jackson, and the fact that he grinned after taking Marquez's best suggests JMM's punches were sluggish and lacking venom at an unnatural weight.


Now, what is going to happen when Mosley lands flush on Floyd?

I say "when" and not "if", because if Marquez managed to land cleanly, Mosley surely will as well. Floyd has a fantastic defence, really fantastic, but even that is not enough to ensure you don't even have to take any clean shots when you are facing a world-class opponent. Floyd has a better defence than Marquez, Mosley, or anyone else in boxing at the moment (now that Hopkins, Toney and Winky all look a bit past their best), but although his defence may mean he won't ever have to ship continual punishment, it does not mean he can't be hit. He can be. He is there, in the ring, and he can be got to, especially when he has his back on the ropes.

That Marquez managed it once or twice in a mismatch suggests that Mosley can do it too. In fact, it suggests that Shane will score cleanly more than just a couple of times, because Marquez was too small and too slow to really put Floyd under any real pressure.

Shane is bigger than Floyd, physically stronger than Floyd, and although Floyd definitely has faster feet than Shane, they probably have pretty similar handspeed. His punches won't fall short like little JMM's, if Floyd is in range or backed up, then Shane's punches will reach him.


So we come to the crunch question: will Floyd be able to take Shane's punches?

I have no idea.

You can look at it from different viewpoints:

- DeMarcus Corley rocked Floyd. Shane hits far harder than DeMarcus Corley ever did.

But things aren't as simple as that. James Toney, in my opinion the best chin of the last 20-30 years, was dropped pretty heavily by Reggie Johnson at middleweight. And he went on to fight at lightheavy, cruiser and heavy, never being in as much trouble again, and proving time and again to have a chin of absolute granite. The right punch at the right time can hurt anyone, and maybe Corley was to Floyd what Reggie was to Toney, a one-off aberration that had no bearing on any future fights.

- Shane wasn't able to knock out Miguel Cotto. Floyd has a better chin and a far better defence than Miguel Cotto.

Again, things aren't as simple as that either. Thomas Hearns knocked out Roberto Duran. Iran Barkley knocked out Thomas Hearns. Roberto Duran took Iran Barkley's best punches and beat him. Then Barkley beat Hearns again. A similar merry-go-round happened with Mosley, Forrest and Mayorga. Different styles mesh in different ways, every fighter is different and every fight is different.


To wrap it up, Shane Mosley is the biggest, strongest, most powerful opponent Floyd has ever faced. Floyd may have looked like he had a solid chin against guys like Judah, Hatton and a version of Oscar De La Hoya who failed to really hurt Steve Forbes or Pacquiao in his later fights. How do we know Floyd will be able to take Mosley's shots? Quite simply, we don't. After Cotto's best punches bounced off Margarito to no effect, we thought Margarito was indestructible. Mosley wrecked him. Floyd is not indestructible. If Mosley catches him flush the way JMM managed to once or twice, he could go.

I wouldn't bet on it, but it's a live possiblity.

Thoughts? :bbb

 

Yes. Because I believe Mosley will land flush at some point, so the genuine chance is because we don't know if Floyd can take it or not. I back Floyd to win, but there is a live chance that when that punch comes, he'll get the Corley spaghetti-legs again - and Shane Mosley can finish.

 

One could be enough though. Corley hurt him with one shot, but Corley was not good enough to keep it going. Marquez landed a flush hook right to the jaw, but PBF took it easily. If Mosley lands a similar shot, will Floyd take it or will he flounder like he did vs Corley?

These are the questions we can't answer yet.

 

:good

 

I agree with that. As I said, if I was a betting man I'd back Floyd to stay on his bike all night and take the decision. I'm just not ruling Mosley out, he has the power to do some damage I think. He is stronger than anyone Floyd has ever fought, Floyd may get a shock at how powerful Shane is on the night.

 

Marquez managed it. Marquez landed a full-flush hook clean on the button. OK, it had no effect, but what's important is that even in a very one-sided fight, he landed a haymaker. If Mosley replicates that, there's every chance Floyd's legs could go. Mosley is very, very powerful. Far more powerful than anyone who has hit Floyd before.

 

And Mosley of right now hits considerably harder than 2007 ODLH IMO.