Why is Juan Manuel Lopez a 3-1 favourite over Rafael Marquez?

I think people overstate Rafa's tendency to get hit. In the Vasquez fights he showed plenty of defensive ability blocking/parrying shots and slipping punches. Same with Vasquez. Having two technically skilled fighters with power exchange frequently does not mean either one has a **** defense. The way Vasquez was able to maneuver inside and use his feet to close the distance against Marquez's outside combinations is at a level I don't think Lopez is at yet, if he ever will be. Lopez is chinnier than Marquez, more open to counters, and much more predictable. Unless Rafa is shot, he takes it.

 

JuanMa is younger, fresher and bigger. Marquez could get picked off/beat to the punch on his way in against the taller and rangier Lopez.
Marquez isn't in his prime, but still has pop and experience. He'll need more than that though, Lopez will be too much for him, and this'll get stopped around the 10th.

 

so that we could win a few quid in the bookies!...putting a few bob on rafa myself

 

Marquez is the better fighter, but his penchant to trade is the reason why the oddsmakers have it like they do.

The oddsmakers are banking on two things, that Marquez' fights with Vasquez have taken their toll, and that Marquez will trade with Lopez.


Its a pity that Rafael does'nt use more of his skill boxed more against dangerous punchers, because he sure would prolong his career if he did that.

 

That means I need to put some money on Rafael

 

Because Rafa is older. Best 3-1 bet you're going to get for a while, I'll put something down on Marquez at that rate.

 

I'm not saying Rafa's defense sucks. He's probably my favorite fighter from the past decade. But he gets punched in the face a lot. With his style, he'll eat a punch to get off two.

I'm pulling hard for Marquez, but I don't see him winning unless he has more left than I think he does.