Whip, That's a pretty good analysis. If you had just titled this thread "Why JMM has a chance..." I'd be with you. The fight comes down to a few factors: How fast will JMM be at this weight? Has JMM improved his defense? (not that it was bad before, but he's fighting a monster.) Has PAC improved his defense? - If there's one fighter that knows how to get through to Pac, it's JMM. But Pac's speed will likely simply be too much for him. That's the overriding factor, and I think the outcome is fairly certain. Still, it should be quite a show.
Everything favors Pacquiao because he's younger. Pacquiao has trained for speed. He bulked up for Mosley. He's training for speed and has looked superfast. I hope Marquez gets through the first few rounds without damage. Marquez also has to turn Pacquiao back when Pacquiao comes marching forward. He has to stay center ring.
I'm not even sure Juan Manuel Marquez fans agree with you but I'm sure 101% sure agree that they want that to happen!