Why Mayweather beats Sergio Martinez

Mayweather takes this fight imo. Sergio leaves himself open way too much and has had a speed advantage in most of his bouts that he would not have over Floyd. Sergio size makes this an intriguing bout but it takes more than size to win a fight. Floyd's superior defense would be the deciding factor imo

 

Good thread.

I can see Floyd and Martinez attempting to hypnotize one another in different ways (Martinez with movement and hands down, trying to draw Floyd in to counter with the right hook or straight left. I could also see Floyd staying rooted to ring center, and focusing his attack on the body with the straight right, before attempting to follow up by stepping around with a hook. Or, FMJ might feint the jab downstairs and try to drop the right in on Sergio as the latter tries to jump in with the counter.

Since neither fighter is likely to land consistently on other at any point, this is likely to come down to which fighter is capable of landing the cleaner and more eye catching shots. And, even though both fighters like to pot-shot and make their shots count, if you put a gun to my head and ask me to tell you which fighter I liked to eke out a decision in a tactical chess-match like this, I'd go with Floyd, since his whole style is predicated on landing cleaner than his opponent.

Would love to see this fight happen. It would be a serious feather in the cap for the fighter got the victory.

 

Firstly, Floyd has longer arms than Sergio. 26" arm length vs 24"

This thread is saturated with dumb mother****ers who don't even talk boxing, but I've come to accept that as part of esb.

Sergio has yet to fight a single HOFer in his career, but has shown he doesn't always have all the answers. Floyd has looked better than Sergio has throughout their careers despite facing more skilled opposition. I don't know where all these ideas of Sergio stopping Floyd easy comes from. Sergio has said on many occasions that Floyd would be the hardest fight.

It isn't going to be no cakewalk for Sergio if he has to face someone with these skills and athleticism.

I think Floyd would start off in his shell guard.

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Macklin guarded like that, and it protected him against left hands while he managed to make it last.

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While in this guard, the focus is investing early to the body with str8 rights. The guard itself makes it hard for Sergio to land his left downstairs. Do bodywork to take away Sergio's primary defensive instrument, his legs.

Floyd can switch it up to the high guard later in the fight. Counter Sergio's jab with his own jab from this position due to where Sergio likes to return his lead hand after jabbing.

It won't be hard for Floyd to land lead rights onto Sergio's face, especially once Sergio's movement is chopped down from the bodyshots. Floyd is great at throwing short punches, and Sergio's hands down style is a liability against a compact offense. Barker's shorter punches didn't give Sergio much to counter off of. The last hands down opponent Floyd fought was Zhen, and he had no problem connecting with lead rights.

Floyd's low output style will bother Sergio since he's less effective leading than as he is countering. Macklin and Barker had success by being offensively conservative which didn't give Sergio much to work off of.

 

Chavez used no offense and he was too slow on his feet. If you can't see the difference, maybe you should give up on the analysis.

 

I disagree. Mayweather trying to walk down Martinez is a terrible idea.

Barker was able to do well for a time in part because of his size and length- his high guard was able to protect him pretty solidly, and he was able to counter with jabs and straight rights. Mayweather has a very good straight right (both as a lead and as a counter), and has a great jab too, but Martinez is taller and longer (I believe Mayweather has a 72" reach and Martinez has a 75" reach if I'm not mistaken.) Martinez's physical advantages alone would make it extremely difficult for Floyd to establish a jab and keep the range on Martinez.

Martinez's physical advantages, however, would force Mayweather to try and close the distance on Martinez, because Martinez is taller, longer, and uses those attributes effectively. Walking in with a high guard might be able to protect Mayweather from the straight left and right jab to the head, but it would leave his body open, and as Martinez demonstrated in his last fight, he has an excellent forward momentum-stopping straight left to the body, and Martinez will attack the body to force the high guard down during a fight- he broke Barker down by attacking his body, and then when the high guard went down as a result, he took out his head.

Martinez is a superb counterpuncher, and you can bet that if Floyd was trying to counter Martinez from the high guard, Martinez would do exactly what Mayweather himself did against Cotto- that is, get around the high guard with wide hooks. Martinez has an excellent right hook that would trouble Floyd in the high guard, though that has a better chance of protecting him from the right hook than the shoulder roll does.

Martinez looked uncomfortable leading against Barker, but he was more capable of leading against Chavez Jr., and now looks very comfortable whether leading or countering. His jab is great, and he was able to switch it up between the head and body constantly, which helped set up his other punches. It would certainly make Floyd think twice about lunging in, if not opening the guard up top.

Moreover, given Floyd's more stationary movement at 154, Martinez's lateral movement and active jab would trouble Floyd a lot, especially in a huge ring like Martinez had against Chavez Jr. Floyd might be better technically on the inside than Martinez is, but Martinez is not to be underestimated in close either- Cotto was visibly stronger than Floyd in close range in their last fight, and an even bigger, stronger man like Martinez would cause even more problems for Floyd just based on his size. Martinez was able to sting Jr. pretty well with short hooks and a sneaky uppercut to the body before he circled out, and he could very likely use his size to impose on Floyd long enough to do the same, and thus limit infighting exchanges to not last very long before he returned to boxing in the center of the ring.

Floyd is very technically skilled, but the fact he's lost foot speed, reflexes, and lateral movement since his younger days (and his power does not bother opponents as much as it once did), he would be very outmatched against a bigger, highly skilled, powerful, laterally-moving, fast-handed counterpuncher with an excellent jab and a varied offensive arsenal. Martinez is a bad stylistic matchup for Floyd even if they were of similar size, but Martinez's size and Floyd's lessened physical capabilities make it an almost insurmountable matchup. Floyd doesn't have the legs to try and go in and out and potshot laterally anymore, and chasing Martinez around the ring would put him at risk to walk into counters.

His best chance in my opinion at least would be to try and move straight back into the ropes, since he can still counter well off the ropes, keep a high guard up on the ropes while moving his upper body and head a lot, and try to counter Martinez with short uppercuts to the head (if Martinez is trying to crack Floyd to the body) or hooks to the body (if Martinez is trying to crack him in the head), and occasionally lunge forward with the jab or the lead right off the ropes to counter probable wider Martinez shots to the head to get around the high guard. If Floyd did that right, Martinez's shots might overshoot, and then he'd be able to clinch and smother Martinez for a moment, get a shot or two in, and then back off again and reset. That'd be risky too, but Martinez isn't exactly a pressure fighter and might hesitate enough to give Floyd some openings.

It's still an extremely tough matchup for Floyd based on everything I listed and Martinez's workrate. I'd expect a stoppage or decision loss for Floyd if he took this fight, but I'd gain a lot of respect for him.

 

I'd want to see if Floyd could make Sexy Sergio go crazy or faint from all the feints. Martinez is very movement happy

 

Where are all these examples of Martinez being an effective inside fighter? He's absolutely terrible in that range. Sure, if you're standing straight up and down, he can catch you with hooks on the way in or out, but he can't sustain a fight inside.

 

Whooped Julio's son's AZZ on the inside in the 4th round I think for about the first half of the round. Julio's son mentally checked out in the 5th because of this imo.

Floyd is better on the inside than Sergio is though.

 

floyd all day. if mexico lindo can almost kho, floyd will do worst

 

I've seen Floyd having to fight harder than usual against guys who keep their damn hands up to shield off shots or parry em. His potshotting style isn't ideal for splitting open that guard

 

Another common misconception is that Barker had success primarily due to his length and height. He's only 6"0 and I bet Barkers arms are as little as an inch longer or the same length as Martinez. It was the tactics that made Martinez uncomfortable. It was being crowded, but not just that, it was being crowded and not given much to work off of while countering effectively that made Martinez desperate and switching to pure offense, which saw him through to get the "ear drum" stoppage.

Martinez having to lead, being countered effectively and not being able to retaliate with his own shots immediately, is what makes him uncomfortable. Barker wasn't a good enough fighter nor athlete to up the work-rate and sustain the little he was doing right. But the blueprint is there, and it can be followed by a smaller, better fighter as well.

 

But that wasn't really an inside fight. Julio puts his head down and has a gape of space between his head and body that the smaller Martinez had a field day with. Not to mention that Chavez barely threw any punches.

Martinez having full range of his arms and body doesn't constitute as an inside battle to me. I've seen Martinez do the same thing in the past. When he really does get in the range where he can't get that comfortable mid range torque on his shots, he clinches or turns.

I'm not disagreeing that Martinez fought Chavez Jr. off of him at several points in the fight, round 4 being the most pivotal, but it was hardly an inside fight. It was Martinez using the space Chavez Jr. naturally creates with his head first style, that gave Martinez the ability to fully utilize his speed advantage and make Chavez pay.

 

no way bro , his power at welter is average , he could not ko jmm at 147

howis he gonna ko martinez a much bigger opponent with a a solid beard?

 

Nice breakdowns by both posters. While I doubt the fight will take place, I was very interested in what they posted and thought they did a good job.

 

Floyd out-doing Sergio in the pocket is funny. I don't see the fight being there, and let's not act like Floyd is Ward offensively when it comes to in-fighting.

Fights not going to happen, anyway. If it does I'll gladly watch the tape and break down the footage and make a post on my thoughts. I'll admit I'm wrong too. I hope I will be...