Why Whyte has no realistic chance in a hypothetical Fury fight

Fury’s 9 best opponents:
​

Wlad: UD

Wilder 3: KO11

Wilder 2: TKO7

Wilder 1: SD

Cunningham: KO7

Wallin: UD

Chisora 2: RTD10

Chisora 1: UD

Hammer: RTD8


Whyte’s 9 best opponents:

AJ: gets KO’d in 7

Parker: UD

Chisora 1: SD

Chisora 2: KO11

Rivas: UD

Povetkin 1: gets KO’d in 5

Wach: UD

Helenius: UD

Allen: UD


Whyte has an 11% KO ratio and 0 KO’s inside the first 31 minutes and 55 seconds: he rarely manages to make his power count against far lower level opposition than Fury, who is a huge 3/13 (81.3%) favourite. Whyte scored KD’s against headbutt-concussed Parker, shopworn Chisora and two against shot 41 year old Povetkin but he was knocked down four times (AJ, Parker, Rivas, Povetkin 1) in the process and was seconds away from being stopped by Fury’s close friend and sparring partner Parker while exhausted in the 12th round (Whyte has gone the full 12 rounds on four occasions to Fury’s five).

Whyte will be 34 to Fury’s 33.66 with no activity advantage: Fury will have fought once in 26 months (last time 6.5 months prior) for 10 full rounds against Wilder (and the beating Wilder took may well have demoralised Whyte) whereas Whyte will have fought twice in 28.5 months (last time 13 months prior) for 4 and 3 full rounds against shot Povetkin and Whyte probably carries more wear and tear from wars (sparring and fights). Whyte has exhibited cowardice in his dealings on many occasions (most recently by calling for a shot Povetkin trilogy, calling out Jermaine “10 rounds with Pavel Sour” Franklin, 40.5 year old injury prone two loss streak Arreola, backing out of the Wallin fight and being willing to step aside for less money for Fury to fight Usyk) and his confidence will be lower than usual, just one fight removed from his 2nd brutal KO loss (starched by yet another uppercut from an old, shot, Russian former contender). To make matters even worse for Whyte, he will have just under 3 months to prepare for Fury, will only receive 18% of the split (if he loses, which he’s likely to) and Fury is the A-side.

Fury and Whyte both know that Whyte can’t outbox Fury so Whyte’s gameplan is more predictable and Whyte isn’t an experienced pressure fighter with the chin, footspeed, engine or head movement of a younger Chisora. Fury and Whyte were sparring partners years ago when Fury was a prospect/contender and Whyte was a novice, which favours Fury due to the psychological dynamic, his higher boxing IQ and in reducing the unknown/random element of a new opponent (in a similar vein, Fury has performed better in rematches than Whyte). The fact that Povetkin KO’d Whyte faster than AJ may be a restraining factor for Fury’s aggression, as is the fact that Fury got knocked down twice in his last fight and Whyte, Whyte’s trainer and promoter are clearly worried about Fury using his movement and boxing on the outside, which they hope he’s no longer able to do effectively. It’s likely though that Whyte’s reputation for having a glass chin, Sugar Hill’s influence and the spectacle of 100,000 at Wembley will make Fury want to go for the KO at some stage. Also, if Fury (who has become more of an entertainer since 2019) is telling the truth about his intention to retire and there not being a rematch clause (which Whyte may find demoralising due to the confidence it projects) he will want to make a statement performance. Whyte will come to win and move forward swinging aggressively (especially if he gets frustrated, as he’s prone to) which will increase his chances of getting KO’d or DQ’d. Fury will want to avenge his close friend Parker’s controversial loss to Whyte, which would also serve to soften Whyte up for a potential Parker rematch.

Whyte isn’t anywhere near as easy to underestimate as a fighter like pre-AJ Ruiz because Whyte is very antagonistic, is from a nation that is prominent in heavyweight boxing, has some height, arm length, KO power, obvious tenacity, decent names on his record and isn’t morbidly obese. Fury may be more motivated than usual in a UK homecoming against a “domestic rival”, he understands that a loss to Povetkin’s grandson would be an absolute disgrace which would also delay or prevent a big money undisputed or Fury-Ngannou crossover fight and it will be the highest level and highest profile fight of Whyte’s career by a wide margin (where he will be the B-side and underdog for only the 2nd time in his 30 fight pro career, while making his world title fight debut) increasing pressure on Whyte, while it won’t even be in the top 4 for Fury. Another motivating factor for Fury is the fact that Whyte is AJ’s 3rd best win, so if Fury schools and batters Whyte he again exposes Matchroom’s hype of their top two heavyweights while elevating himself and further undermines AJ’s reputation and confidence, as well as Hearn’s position.

If Fury fights Whyte as he did Chisora in the rematch (who in terms of anthropometrics and level is very similar to Whyte, as proven by their 23 very close and competitive rounds together, giving Fury a considerable experience advantage stylistically) Whyte will be little more than a heavy bag on legs, which is why Whyte has been protected from movers and southpaws for his entire career (Whyte’s fastest opponent was Joseph Parker, who is not especially nimble or fleet of foot and Whyte struggled badly). Whyte also hasn’t looked his best against longer opponents (AJ, Helenius, Wach) and Fury is longer than all of them. Furthermore, Fury has proven several times and in 2/3 of his last fights that he doesn’t need to be at his best to grind out a dominant win against a tough opponent.

 

Morvidus speculated in March last year that Haye would have been Fury's toughest stylistic matchup as he's roughly a hybrid of Cunningham and Wilder. But I think it has to be Usyk, who is roughly a hybrid of Cunningham and Wallin (though I still make Fury a big favourite).

 

Fury was 25 years old, 21-0 (15 KO’s, 1 of the fights was against a sub-201 lbs opponent, 6 wars won, best wins Cunningham and Chisora) fit, active and focused, while Haye (who declined rapidly due to his style and training methods) was almost 33 years old, 26-2 (24 KO’s, 1 loss by KO and 17 of the fights were against sub-201 lbs opponents, 5 wars won, 1 lost, best wins Valuev and Chisora) very rich and had lost his hunger, coming off 14 months of inactivity and faffing around as a celebrity.

I agree, Fury would've battered him. Haye knew it too, which is why he sh*t it and pulled out twice.