Why will Guerrero beat Mayweather and what will the fans say about it?

The rematch will happen in September. Guerrero wont be given full credit as most will say Floyd is over the hill. I agree his reflexes and legs have slowed but hes not a shot fighter or damaged goods obviously.

Mayweather isnt gifted fundamentally like a Bernard Hopkins. His amazing reflexes, speed and stamina/ability to adjust is what makes Floyd special. His style is unorthodox and he says Guerrero has no special effects and is flat footed. Well Castillo didnt have any special effects, used head-movement and a jab to get in close and easily outworked Floyd in the pocket.

Maybe Floyd will show us something we havnt seen before but i doubt it. His main objective will be to close the gap, and get to close quarters and make it an inside fight. Mayweather is the superior inside fighter but Guerreros physical strength, punch output and ability to switch gears with his stay busy and power shots will make the rhythm awkward for Floyd to look good in.

Its not hard to envision Floyd walking into left hands and right hooks because he goes for broke with the lead right, which has caused him to buckle to left hands vs Corley, knocked down by Judah and he went to war with a journeyman switch hitter like Augustus. Also, the Ortiz fight means nothing because Victor is a right hander fighting southpaw, he has no jab or counter right hook and is known it get busted up by right hands to the head. Keep in mind Floyd also ate some big right hooks from Ortiz due to backing straight up and not being able to duck it on time.

Guerrero knows how to circle to his right, away from the right hand and also ducks away from it very well while keeping his opponent at the end of his jab and right hook counter. You can say all u want that guys like Salido and Aydin got to Guerrero so why shouldnt Floyd but he doesnt fight anything like Salido and doesnt have heavy hands like Aydin. When a guy hits that hard, Guerrero was focused on guarding himself up top, leaving himself open to the right downstairs. But i believe Guerrero has heavier hands and hits harder than Floyd, he'll be more willing to counter Floyd up top than he was with Aydin.

Fans say Guerrero cant outbox Floyd. Why not? Floyd isnt known for having a great jab or left hook up top vs southpaws: after review, his left hook up top is effective but i still feel he banks too much on the lead right. Lead right, left hook to the body combo will be key. Guerrero has shown he can handle and time a fast handed fighter like Berto. Guerreros accuracy and timing along with his jab to the body in the center of the ring is how he was able to hurt and put Berto down. Also you cant overlook the fact that Guerrero can circle and pivot around his opponent very well. The angles and variety of punches he can throw will make it uncomfortable and difficult for Floyd to neutralize.

Like Malignaggi said, Floyds good at taking away what u do best, but Guerrero does a lot of things good plus he can also make adjustments in the ring and is arguably as mentally strong and tough. What its gonna come down to is if Floyd can hurt Guerrero and whether he can break him down and make it his fight. Imo he wont be as successful at the distance, and will struggle with Guerreros awkwardness and angles on the inside and this will turn into an action packed all out brawl. Floyd isnt new to this. Theyll go toe to toe. Itll be a close fight with either fighter possibly being hurt or wobbled.

When Guerrero wins, the haters will say how could Floyd lose to a bum like Guerrero when in fact, Robert is a very good fighter, the only thing he lacks is he isnt a great finisher when he has his opponent hurt and tends to let his opponent back into the fight. Also he tends to get pretty winded mid to late rds but he usually gets a second wind and finishes strong. But Guerrero brings a lot to the table and for the first time, im picking Floyd to lose a close competitive crowd pleasing fight. Im sure most will discredit The Ghost and blame the loss on Moneys age but those expecting a one-sided beat down from Mayweather are in for a pleasant surprise.

 

He is good fundamentally, but he was great when he was throwing lead left hooks and right hands all night with such ease. Many would agree he is not textbook. The spring in his legs and the reflexes allowed him to fight elusive and do things a trainer wouldnt want u doing. When a split second matters so much, he cant heavily rely on his reflexes as much.

 

I wouldnt be surprised if he broke Guerrero down late. Guerrero does have some stamina issues and Mayweather will exploit that so itll depend how well Guerrero can whether that storm and turn it up again during those last few rds.