Even the 2018 version of Povetkin would've beaten any version of Wilder IMHO - declining, yes, but still better than anyone Wilder beat AND with a style that Wilder would've struggled badly with.
I'm sure for some people, Wilder ducking Pov was a good thing - otherwise Pov would've ended up giving the WBC to Joshua, making him undisputed... And, as much as he's got a very solid resume, it probably isn't the worst thing in the world that Joshua won't go down as an undisputed champ. Still, on some level it would've prevented the ridiculous amount of hype Wilder ended up generating (and the reputation he still enjoys now which is stronger than it deserves to be).
We know Wilder wouldn't quit if he had any choice... But. He was still stopped twice by Fury who is famously not a massive puncher. Whether he'd be able to avoid getting stopped by a harder puncher, which Pov was, is something I wouldn't be confident of... And I don't think Pov would have to avoid it for 12, Wilder would be getting waved off before that unless he managed to land the hail Mary. I really don't see Wilder winning - Povetkin was a legit contender, Wilder was probably only ever fringe contender level.
Povetkin has better timing than Fury. Powerwise they might be close but that is not the most important factor here. Povetkin was better than Parker. Compare their performance vs Hughie Fury. Parker is inactive compared to Povetkin. I also rate chin and power towards Povetkin aswell. I think he would have exposed Wilder during that fight.
I would say way better than Ortiz - far more proven. Either way though, even if Ortiz and Povetkin were equal, the difference in styles would mean Pov would beat Wilder.
At the time I thought Povetkin was going to win when the Russians won the purse bids and I think he was very hard done by not getting the fight.
I see them as 50/50 but I think AJ and Wilder aged both of them out. At this time Usyk was a bit younger and closer to his peak.
Sure, they were both picked when they were past prime... "Aged out" suggests a fight people were begging for that they waited on - not really relevant here. I don't see what basis there could possibly be to see them as 50/50 though - Povetkin was always a solid contender, Ortiz wasn't. Ortiz wasn't nearly proven enough to suggest he was on the same level as Povetkin - he got hyped out of all proportion given how pathetically little he achieved (much like Wilder did).
Ortiz has fewer high quality wins but still dismantled Jennings, was then badly avoided by Fury and AJ and many other contenders like Whyte. Still even now put in a few decent displays when he's not what he was back then.
He looked pretty good against Joyce at 36. Did better than everyone but Zhang, he was a decent contender in his prime
When the fight was signed I favored Wilder. Since then Wilder has proven to have a better chin that I thought he did. Povektin isn't ending this fight with 1 punch. Deontay can. While Povektin is a good combination puncher I don't think he would be landing very many on Wilder. Wilder is unorthodox with his defense but it works well enough to keep him out of trouble against smaller fighters. I'm still picking Wilder here.
https://www.gamblingsites.net/news/deontay-wilder-vs-alexander-povetkin-odds-and-preview-8033/ 50/50 according to bookies at the time.
Yes, he dismantled Jennings, but Jennings himself was nothing special. Avoided? No, he wasn't relevant. Besides, the avoided fighter is a myth, and it was Ortiz that refused to fight AJ. Seriously overrated fighter.
But how much are you basing that on Fury's punches which almost never have much pop? Arm punches most the time that just do damage because of his weight. Pov's hooks would be 5x as hard as anything Fury hit Wilder with.