The problem is that he doesn't.You don't need to look at his past 5 fights-its pretty much the case with all of his pro fight-he comes to trade punches and duke it out, which odd with a guy with such a stout amatuer backgroud.
Yes, Arreola can win a round. In fact, I think there's a possibility of Arreola winning the fight, believe it or not. Vitali is past his prime, he can't punch as hard as he used to punch, his style is largely based on keeping up a good workrate late in the fight when the opponents are drained of energy and can't compete but age may make that difficult. Plus, Arreola is practically fighting in his own backyard, is a capable puncher himself and I have a feeling Arreola will show a strong chin in this.
Will Vitali get any credit whatsoever if he beats a game Arreola? I don't think so. I can hear it already "Oh Arreola was just another fat guy who never beat anybody and just laid down for a big payday". Like a broken record
Difference being that Lewis was a cocky sob, who often underestimated his opponents and didn't train hard enough for them. It cost him vs. Rahman and nearly vs. Briggs and Vitaly. Arreola's biggest chance to win this fight is VK's age and injury proneness, imo.
Arreola does not make it past the first couple of rounds. Did anyone else notice that the Travis Walker who knocked Arreola down jsut got owned by clubfighter (and that is generous) Manuel Quezada?
I'm being as objective as I can be here, but I don't think Arreola will win anything more than 1 round at the most, being more realistic I think it'll be a shut out like the Sam Peter fight, but with Arreola showing more heart.
I believe the the fight won't go past 7 rounds, and if the the fight goes on, Vitali will almost certainly dominate. However, Arreola is not known for starting fights slowly. He as a good chance of winning if he goes all out offensively, he has the power, he just needs to drop down in weight to increase his speed. He can't come into the bout weighing in at a excessive 255 pounds, he needs to try drop down to 240 again...
It depends on how Vitlai comes out. If Vitali feels Arreola out for round one, he might lose it. Props to Vitali for facing a young top ten talent in his own backyard.