Will Fury beat AJ as bad as Calzaghe beat Lacy ?

Short answer - unlikely, maybe very much so.

However, regarding Calzaghe-Lacy comparisons, it seems many are forgetting Lacy was the favorite. Also Joe was at the age (33?) where some fighters start slipping. But Joe wasn't slipping at that age as he proved by boxing Lacy's ears off.
With Fury's history, he's a bit of wild card and hard to predict which Fury shows up - mentally and physically
With AJ many still have doubts after being stopped by the Rotund One. Beating an old Pulev was expected.