I think he will go up to SMW. Sulaiman already hs reserved a belt for him there (Wards old strap). But if he remains at MW, I would favor him by stoppage over Geale and see the Choco kid as a 50/50 fight. Quillin might be able to outbox him over 12.
Quillin doesn't have the stamina. Guy doesn't looked to have improved since the N'Dam fight. He might surprise us next fight, but the Quillin that fought N'Dam would not survive against Chavez Jr. He wasn't looking good against Guerrero either. Chavez Jr. would walk through his punches and pressure him to all hell.
Is that actually how it works? Fighters who are rated by different organizations cannot fight each other unless they are trying to unify the belts??
You are probably right. He had a hard time getting down there already, but this one year ban might catapult him to 168.