will paul williams work rate go down against pavlik?

Yes as soon as he feels Pavliks massive right.

 

the same right he couldnt even land on old man hopkins

 

If Williams comes in and tries to do his normal thing, this fight won't last 5 rounds. Check the punch stats for Pavlik/Miranda. Pavlik through 80-90 punches per round and more with Miranda throwing almost as many back at him, and trying to take his head off with every one. PW's arm punches aren't going to bother Pavlik. If Paul is as aggressive as he normally is, this will be a short fight.

 

Yes . . . because Pavlik can punch back.

Pav is not the kind of fighter to just take punches without dishing out his own.

 

There's just absolutely no way PW will sustain that work rate. If he throws that many punches, Pavlik will throw punches back, and he's going to end up trading; and if there's one thing that's certain about this fight, it's that Pavlik will get the better of the exchanges. He's bigger, stronger, more powerful and can take a better shot. When Williams gets off on people, he stands right in front of them, leans forward and drops his hands. If he does that against Pavlik, he's getting blown away.

Williams' best chance is to try and box and move around Pavlik.

 

Definitely. When Paul tastes that right hand, I'm sure he'll be more wary of opening up as freely.

There's no comparison really, Williams is much easier to find that Hopkins. "Old" or not Hopkins is still as slippery as they come.

 

I think he is going to have to do something a bit different..be a little more cagey and defensive.

But his thing is to throw a lot of punches..I dont think he should mess with that but Im sure his team know he will really have to use it in a less aggressive fashion. Maybe more jabs of the backfoot, then jump in when he gets an opening.

If he is 100%, Im picking Kelly though.

 

No it won't, that's what should make him win this fight, his activity. It won't be hard for him to land on Pavlik who needs to stand still to throw his own punches. The big question is will he be able to take Pavlik's power, he's going to take hard punches he never experienced before.

 

This oughta be mighty innarestin'.

 

Exactly. Couldn't have said it better myself. Hops may be old, but he still has a masterful defense.

 

Williams will fight a jabbing fight if he wants to win. He will not be that active, but he will pop his jab out and try to win a decision and not get tired. You get tired with Pavlik and trade and that is when he wins. Even if Pavlik is taller, Williams reach is 81 inches isn't it? Pavlik's is what? I know it probably is not near that. My guess would be 75 or 76, so the reach will help Paul much more. So my guess is Paul will use the jab more and study the Hopkins fight and win a decision. He cannot be that active with a guy who can punch like Pavlik.

 

I don't know how you rationalise this. PW stands still when he throws as well. He may move, but he doesn't box and move. He steps in range, leans forward (rather like Jermain) and then fires. PW doesn't have a big reach and height advantage on KP, unlike usual. So he's not going to be able to avoid an exchange if he fights at his usual pace. And if he wants to exchange, he might as well jump in front of a truck.

 

That's a good post, but I'm not sure that Williams can outjab Pavlik. The concept of "reach" is misleading, since it's really measuring wingspan which includes your back. "Arm length" is a better indication of real reach, and PW only has a 1 inch edge there. So it's not as if he's going to jab from range. Plus, he may have the edge in speed, but KP's jab is much stiffer.

 

Who knows if he will have the same stamina and work rate at 160 like he did at 147. I don't like the idea of him jumping straight to 160 without having had a fight in a long time.