Will Povetkin-Whyte 2 go the distance?

Pros:
- If Whyte can box for 12 rounds he will win a UD, especially with Hearn's judges.
- Whyte is fighting for his career, so a win by any means takes precedence over how impressive it is.

Why I can't see this happening:
Whyte was boxing cautiously in the first fight but he still managed to hurt Povetkin (who looked like he was gassing) and managed to drop him twice in the fourth. Povetkin is 41.5 years old, may have had Covid (for whatever that's worth) and lacks the speed, stamina and chin of his younger days. I doubt Povetkin can go the distance physically (even if he's on juice) and I suspect he knows this, which will encourage him to go for an early KO.

Whyte knows that Povetkin can take him out with one punch at any time in the fight so the longer he's in there, the greater the chance that Povetkin will knock him out. Whyte's chin and confidence are likely to be badly compromised in the rematch (considering his defeat, the manner of it and the pressure of his career being on the line) and Povetkin knows he can't win a decision, so he will go in aggressively to KO Whyte as long as he can stand and he will have confidence he can win at any point due to Whyte's past fragility. Whyte also lacks the footspeed, range and defensive nous to avoid Povetkin for 12 rounds.

I was surprised to read that Whyte said "I don't need to beat Povetkin to fight Wilder", which sounds like he is both lacking in confidence and delusional. If Povetkin beats him again, he goes to the bottom of the pile and he will never get a shot at Wilder. It may be an attempt to reduce pressure on himself but he can't possibly believe it. For Whyte to even verbalise the prospect of not beating Povetkin in the rematch shows mental weakness.

If Whyte has Povetkin in trouble like last time, I can see an early stoppage to ensure victory for Whyte (I also expect him to jump on Povetkin this time in that situation). If Povetkin has Whyte in trouble, Whyte's corner is much more likely to throw in the towel than they were a few weeks ago after what happened to Josh Warrington. I expect both sides know this and will want to put their opponent in a position where someone has to make a decision.

Whyte is a naturally aggressive an egotistical man, had his pride badly wounded, any potential legacy he was building was majorly damaged by a shot 41 year old version of the 3rd best heavyweight of the Klitschko era, his career setback and seriously threatened and he feels that Povetkin tricked him with a "nice guy act" and wasted his time with the "Covid delays". Whyte also isn't a runner by nature. To regain his honour, he will feel he has to brutally KO grandpa Povetkin. An early KO is needed for his ego, to get his career back on track, to make a statement to the other sharks in the division and to maximise his chances of victory.

 

It would be embarrassing and he'd probably still get chinned lol.

I can't see there being any drug testing either (unless Povetkin wins) as the fight would have to be called off and Whyte would never get to avenge his defeat, with another eliminator scheduled for an even later date (assuming it's Povetkin that gets popped). Considering how fatigued he was in his last performance, his age and general wear and tear, don't be surprised if Povetkin juices up big time. He's going to need it and Whyte certainly will be.

 

Hunter didn't pace himself well in the Povetkin fight and it will be almost 16 months since that fight when Povetkin faces Whyte for a second time. Povetkin's in his early 40's now and those tough fights with Hunter and Whyte must have taken something out of him. If he's not back on the meldonium he's definitely going to have stamina problems in the rematch, unless he KO's Whyte early-mid.

 

Yeah, I'm not a fan of rematch clauses for anything but world championship fights where the first fight is close. Before Whyte-Povetkin it was "the winner will face Fury or Joshua" but when Hearn gets the result he doesn't want it's "we have a rematch clause" to clog up the division. Failing a drug test is one way to get out of a fight but I doubt there will be any testing for this one. Maybe Povetkin is confident he can do the business again. Then possibly a fight against Wilder for the vacated WBC belt and Povetkin retires as world champion at 42. Would be an awesome chain of events.