The fight wont be cloase at all, haye will lose every round till Wlad KO's him. Wlad by KO in about 3 rounds.
Same thing was happening to me, then I watched some Haye footage again and it had the reverse effect. Wlad's jab and Haye's poor upper body movement is a bad formula is suspect.
The point I was trying to make is that Degale "should have won". A Booth game plan pushed Groves over the line. That's what makes me pick Haye in a fight that many think Wlad should win through his physical advantages.
It's gonna take a drastic change in Wlads makeup and approach for him to take Haye out inside 6 rounds. I can't see someone who's tentative against Eddie Chambers, going for a KO in the first few rounds against David Haye. The only way that happens is if Haye makes a mistake and jumps into a equilibrium breaking top of the head shot. Wlad doesn't commit unless he's confident he's stabilised his opponent enough to throw a 2 behind the 1, followed by the occassional left hook. I think both men will fight their usual fights.
If Chagaev & Chambers didnt have good chins though its likely they might have been knocked out in the 2nd round of their fights with Wladimir when they both ate a big right hand.
Whatever happens I believe the outcome of this fight will be fair. I can't see the judges having the nerve to default on this one for the sake of a few quid. Its too important to boxing. I really hope I'm right.
I think based on their talent and physical ability, Wlad should win this fight. He has everything that you need to beat Haye and he is a very gifted fighter, without question, but the one thing I don't trust is his mental state. You said there that he's a nervous fighter and it's absolutely true. If Haye keeps moving, using lots and lots of feints, I guarantee we will see a very inactive Wlad. He is too easy to disrupt. If Haye keeps moving, you can guarantee that Wlad won't unleash his right hand because he only throws it when a fighter is stood right in front of him and he can't miss, and if you use a lot of feints, he is negative with his jab. Earlier on, someone posted a .gif of the Ibragimov fight and, as it's a .gif, most people will ignore it but it does actually tell a story because that .gif was repeated throughout the fight and we saw Wlad, against a well and truly undersized, overmatched opponent, look gunshy. This is what is making me pick Haye despite all the physical strengths and technical ability pointing to Wlad. I think Haye will come into the fight with a genuine gameplan, a clear knowledge of how to take away Wlad's jab and I think he'll also be able to 'scare' Wlad. He'll have Wlad cautious when he using his feints and then when Haye counters, he'll be so quick that is will affect Wlad mentally, especially when he sees that he's in the ring with such a calm, focused fighter and he is struggling to get his own gameplan to work. I mentioned gameplan there and that's key. I think Haye will be working something out that Wlad isn't expecting and Haye? All he has to do is watch one of Wlad's cookie cutter fights to see exactly what he's going to do. It's become a running joke, but Wlad really is a "jab, jab, grab, jab, grab" type fighter. Steward isn't going to be watching videos of Haye and deciding that Wlad should throw lead left uppercuts to catch Haye off guard, or whatever else, simply because he knows that Wlad won't follow his ideal gameplan. Steward could devise a strategy that Alexander The Great would be proud of and Wlad will still throw "jab, jab, grab, jab, grab" over and over again. He is not confident enough to try new things and that'll hurt him. Wlad likes to say that boxing is a chess match. If it is, then to me, this fight is a match between one guy who has only lost a couple of pawns and the other guy is down to a few pieces. The problem is, the guy with the most pieces doesn't know how to take advantage of that. His opponent, despite having every disadvantage, has a clear strategy and faith in himself to carry it out.
I see Haye getting some early success and it wouldn't amaze me to see him win early. Where I feel Haye is more vulnerable to an early (ish) stoppage is if (when) Wlad starts to find his range with the jab, unlike loads of other opponents, Haye won't accept his fate and eat jabs til he his ****ed he will try to change things and he will keep Wlad honest. By honest, I mean Wlad will have to fight rather than jab a punch bag with no ambition for the duration. To steal Buncey's phrase, he won't leave his heart in customs, he won't give up and by trying to change things up I just see him shipping a lot by the midway point. Haye to go out on his shield :deal
You seem a really nice person. And because of this I have a great deal involving some Real Estate I have for sale in down town Kabul...
Maybe? Dude, surely I wasn't the only one who saw his flaws? Everybody saw him beat Paul Smith in precisely the manner he was meant to then made out like he was second coming of Jesus. All I saw was that Smith was as poor and limited as always and that DeGale was simply more talented. If Smith was any good do you think FW would have had his boy in there? Anyway, trust your instincts, never the "knowledgeable" posters. Plenty of people said "invest in banks" and that didn't really work out, did it?