I'm inclined to favor Wladimir, and I believe he would either win a decisive decision, or possibly by late stoppage.
"17 fights won thru Povetkin and 12 wins by knockout" 1. None of the fighters Wlad beat were as formidable as Joshua, who Usyk beat wide twice, schooling and battering him in their first fight 2. Hunter and Briedis would have been among the best opponents Wlad fought in his title run (plus the same size as many of them) and Wlad never hurt Briedis over 30-40 rounds in sparring according to Wlad's chef, despite Wlad allegedly hurting almost everyone he sparred with 3. Ibragimov, Haye, Wach (due to his lack of speed and defence) and Povetkin were all easier to stop than Usyk (Wlad doesn't even have a body attack in that regard) and non-movers Wach/Povetkin took a lot of punishment without being KO'd 4. 17/20 of Wlad's championship fights were in Europe, where he had an absurd level of A-side advantage 5. The best boxer Wlad fought beat him by a huge margin with Wlad never able to adapt, Rummy's Corner described it as a "humiliating schooling", having previously picked Wlad to win by 6th round KO or whatever Who did Wlad stop that makes you confident that Wlad would stop Usyk? He just about stopped non-elite southpaw mover Thompson but even that was one of his more difficult and competitive fights. "a 6'3 CW (albeit the best or 2nd best ever) is gonna do that? That's not how you beat Wlad." Wlad was beaten or almost beaten in a few different ways (ground down mid-late with pressure or movement and counters, blown out early, outboxed), there wasn't just one path to victory against him or one type of fighter who could pull it off.
Wlad's very quick for his size and Usyk's not more elusive than 2015 Fury because of Fury's extreme range but Usyk could box in the pocket and outthink/outwork the less versatile Wlad.
Body shot KD's are a rarity at heavyweight at a decent level. Wallin's first response to "was he better than you remember sparring?" was "he landed some good bodyshots" and Wallin was able to take them better from Gassiev and Fury. I recall Joshua going to the body on Wlad and Povetkin. And he had more success in the Usyk rematch, where he threw 2.5x as many bodyshots. Even in fight 1 Joshua had most success in the mid rounds where he threw a few more body punches. I think anyone with a relatively one-dimensional headhunting strategy would have serious problems with a faster, more agile, better co-ordinated Usyk due to his chin, engine and IQ.
Quick for his size maybe but usyk is much quicker for his size and he's a cruiserweight so in reality he's much quicker than Vlad both in feet and hands not to mention boxing IQ
"usyk is much quicker for his size" If Wlad was the quickest 6'5+, 240-245 lbs heavyweight ever as I suspect he was then Usyk wasn't *much* quicker P4P, if at all.
Klitschko not going to the body doesn't make him one dimensional. Joshua focusing on the body for a round still resulted in him getting completely dominated. This fight comes down to ring IQ which Joshua lacks and Klitschko has in abundance, no matter how many body shots he throws.
I used to favour Klitschko but now I'm not so sure anymore. Usyk can really deal with a jab in many ways and can make up ground fast. His fast hands would be a problem. That said, Wlad at his best was repeatedly able to foil guys trying to get in on him by creating space via footwork and it would be hard for Usyk to press the fight on the larger boxer who really fights big. Then of course Wlad has his huge power to fall back on. I guess still Wlad on resume but it would be a lot closer than I've previously thought.
I kind of knew some here would be comparing Usyk with Byrd. Lol! Byrd would NO WAY IN HELL have done to Bellew and Dubois what Usyk did. Usyk has way more behind his shots when he digs in. Yes they are both slick but Usyk has better movement and Footwork. But prime Wladimir with Steward from around 2006-2013 was a H2H top 5 HW imo. THAT Wlad hardly even lost any rounds. I think this would be a really close fight but Wlad had that fight ending/altering one shot power. Yes Usyk ate Joshua’s best but Wlad is in another league. I’d say I’d favor Prime Wladimir 60/40. Usyk would be his toughest fight though. Put it this way… If it’s the same Wlad Manny has to scream at to “Let your damn shots go!” like during Chambers Or Ibragimov, Wlad would dig himself a hole too deep most likely and Usyk would rack up the rounds/points to a win. But the Wlad that fought Chagaev and Thompson 2 would be a VERY hard fight for Usyk to win. I’d say Wlad UD. Now if Usyk goes out there and shows another level against Fury and beats the **** out of him and even stops him… this fantasy fight becomes a different conversation. Lol
Wlad would beat the **** out of Usyk, there's literally nothing Usyk can do to trouble Wlad. How in the blue hell is Usyk gonna try to outbox Wlad from the outside when Wlad had an ATG jab and I'm not gonna even mention the height and reach, then there's Wlad's octopus grabs which would completely nullify anything Usyk can do. Then there's the fact that Usyk has almost non existent power, wtf is he gonna do vs Wlad?
People forget that wlads jab was a thing of beauty, power and speed, and he rarely missed with that. Haye was faster and more agile than usyk in the upper body and wlad stopped almost every offensive from Haye. Still usyk is a way better fighter than Haye, but I think wlad is a really bad style match up for usyk. There is no jab in the industry today which is comparable to his. Similar to ggg jabs but faster. People forget that. Wlad could win almost all his fights on the jab alone
Joshua didn't get completely dominated in fight 2 where he targeted the body much more, in fight 1 he neglected body punching but still had some success there. I think Usyk would find Wlad's attacks significantly easier to read than the other way around (he had the same problem vs Fury). I also think Wlad's fight IQ is overrated given he never showed any ability to adapt against Fury and managed to blunder the Joshua fight, which he was confident of winning going in. I don't see how Wlad would have much chance of winning in the absence of being allowed to grapple Usyk and jump on his back for 12 rounds.
Really hard to predict. You have one guy who's sublime in a very narrow category with elite power vs a guy who's very, very good in almost all categories but lacks power. If Wlad can keep Usyk at the end of his jab and can time him then he wins a decision. If Usyk can get Wlad out of his comfort zone and fighting his jazzy improvisational style of fighting he wins by decision. All boils down to who can impose their pattern of the fight on the other early.
Wlad's kryptonite is punchers - certainly not Usyk. I think Usyk can win but within s threat Wlad can fight without fear.