I put 30%, but i would like to say 40%,,,he has a iron chin, good boxing skills, hence being number 3 in ring Magizine, watch the ruiz fight, an i think he really made a ruiz fight watchable, IMO,,,
What you're really asking is "what is the chance represented as a % that Chagaev will turn up at 90% or better of his best", and I don't think that's something we can speculate upon. Chagaev looked rusty last time out, and jaded 18 months ago when he beat Skelton. That version gets stopped late or widely out-pointed. The guy who beat Valuev the first time? That guy has a very good chance, close to 50%.
less then 10%...to slow, not explosive at all....wlad will have him done in 7 or 8 or if chgaev gets lucky a shutout loss 120-108
To quote Don King: 'Slim and none'. In all seriousness though, I like this fight. Chagaev will turn up to win and will make Wlad be a bit more offensive than his previous bouts. I think Wlad wins by late stoppage. Wlad TKO 10.
Klitschko is 33 years old; Chagaev is 31. The age advantage makes up for any ring rust Chagawev may have (but I doubt he has any: sparring can be as rough as a real fight if you ask your sparring partners to fight hard). Ruslan has better defense than Wlad, but Wlad is the more powerful puncher. Chagaev has never been caught flush with a good punch, and no one has ever beaten Klitschko by playing defense. It's a 50/50 fight imo.
With Chagaev failling a medical in Finland so recently I can't see him being 100% for this fight. He might be well enough to fight but his best days are probably behind him. Even at his best I would have made Wlad strong favourite. I only give him a 10% chance.
This will be about as competitive as Waldo - Ibragimov and about as entertaining. It wouldn't suprise me if a tired Chagaev walked onto one late and found himself saved by the ref.
no way, haye is a deadly puncher....chagaev? Not so much....and last time I checked wlad was "dr. glass chin"