Woods UD Tarver would be the most sensible pick. Clinton's looked better against a higher standard of opposition in his last few fights than Tarver has. I've seen nothing in the build up to this that'd make me think Antonio's suddenly found his form of old. Woods is too well drilled and tough to get caught by anything that's going to knock him out and he's not getting out punched by a man that struggled to match Hopkins' pace, either.
Bumping this back up. I realize a bunch of people like Woods personally (hell, I do after seeing a few interviews), but let's keep this objective. I'm willing to believe he's improved since the Jones debacle, but this isn't just his first major fight in America since then, he's got to win in Tarver's home state. Potential corruption aside, why wouldn't we expect the best Tarver possible to show up on Saturday? Lose here, and he's pretty much done. Personally, I'd be surprised if the Milk Dud of Malice is so washed up that he can't beat a B+ fighter on his own home turf. There's a huge difference between being disinterested and shot.
Hopkins was all wrong for Tarver stylistically, and although I've never bought the conspiracy crap, something was wrong with him that night. Between his physical state, and not having a clue how to fight Hopkins, his output suffered. He looked ordinary against Muriqi. He had no motivation to look anything but. He looked ordinary against Santiago, then destroyed him once his corner and the crowd started chewing him out. Woods is going to be right there to be countered. Now maybe he walks through the kitchen sink, brings the crowd over to his side, and wears Tarver down late, but that's asking a hell of a lot against a southpaw, with a home crowd behind him, who's the naturally better athlete.
This a good analysis, and the way you have described it you point out Tarver's only chance of success. Woods isn't hard to hit back, someone slick like Tarver will be able to land counters and disrupt Woods's rhythm. Tarver is probably a better pure boxer than Woods, but there's more to a fight than just who's got the most talent. Even if Tarver is the more gifted fighter, or at least was a better athlete, he's not shown me anything in his last 3 fights that suggest he can beat Woods. Clinton Woods is the most consistent light-heavyweight of the last 5 years, he's been up against world-class fighters plenty of times and has proved he can hold his own with the best. He is not a better boxer, but he has amazing heart, an iron chin and brutal determination. His workrate is far higher than Tarver's, and at this stage in their career's I cant see Tarver coping with that. Woods isn't going to get blown away by a single shot. He has one of the most reliable chins in boxing. He's not going to get tired down the stretch either, he's been 12 numerous times and has always been in superb condition. Tarver cant knock him out, if he goes for broke early he might get lucky but Woods is a hard man and I dont see him getting KO'd. I cant see Antonio Tarver, nearly 40 years old and looking hopelessly shot in all his previous bouts, having the stamina, workrate, guts and heart to go toe-to-tow with Clinton Woods and win on points, like Glen Johnson did. I also think Antonio Tarver isn't taking Woods seriously enough, he has made comments that suggest that Woods is a handpicked opponent and he will blast him out of there early. If Tarver isn't ready for a war, if he's not prepared to go 12 brutal rounds like Glen Johnson did, then he's not going to win. Based on recent form and possible outcomes I can only pick Clinton Woods. Tarver may be the better boxer but this is one fight too far for the old man. He may win a few of the early rounds, and he may score a lucky stoppage if he goes all-or-nothing, but otherwise I see Clinton Woods winning clearly on points.
Have to go for Woods on points myself, hopefully that will lead to a fight with Calzaghe afterwards. Somehow I don't see it happening.
Tarver by decision unless he has become completely shot .. Woods is a near total bum ... always has been ... if Tarver can't handle Clinton Woods he should immediately retire ... talk about an embarrassing guy to lose to ....