Would Frazier have beaten Ali in their third fight if his eye never swollen?

No.

 

Unfortunately for Joe no. He was behind on points on all the cards even when the fight was at its most brutal with Frazier battering Ali on the ropes. And the scores were pretty fair.

 

No. Muhammad was up on all cards by a sufficient level. Even though the fight was brutal for both.

 

His eyes didn't swell up by themselves.

 

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If Ali wasn't going to finish the fight and Frazier would have won by just showing up for the last round then yes. If this is false as some have argued then no.

 

This is actually a good point. I highly doubt Ali would’ve quit but it’s conceivable.

 

Ali was ahead on the cards. But the question is baffling. It’s sorta like asking “ would Foreman have beaten Frazier if his punches weren’t so damaging ? “

 

No

 

Ali would have died before quitting. I know you don't, but a lot of people underestimate just how tough a MF that man was at his core.

 

No. The progression of arthritis and high blood pressure were serious problems for Joe, and he was no longer at his peak weight of 203. He wasn't particularly impressive in his rematch with a hopelessly washed up Jimmy Ellis on a four fight winless streak. Starting with Shavers, Ellis was only 1-4-1. The Jerry Quarry rematch was a masterpiece, but JQ was also hopelessly shot and had been decked in his previous bout by Joe Alexander the month before.

Meanwhile, Ali was extremely competition ready with an extraordinary streak of seven extended wins, starting with Norton II. He'd already pushed himself to collapse at the end of 15 rounds with Wepner, charging through the Championship Rounds to avenge a bogus Tony Perez ruled knockdown. (The awful Perez later ruled Roldan's opening seconds shove down of Hagler as an official KD, and hypocritically disqualified Elisha Obed for excessive holding against Bobby Czyz in a bout I viewed after letting Ali get away with the same illegal crap in Frazier II.) Just as Ali collapsed following Wepner, he was resting on a knee after Manila, and had to shake hands with a standing Frazier from that position, showing that he gave more of himself in that situation, just as Frazier did in the FOTC.

He dealt with the immensely strong and powerful Lyle over 11 rounds, then did most of the work in going the Championship Distance for the Bugner rematch in scorching Kuala Lumpur with Frazier commenting from ringside. Malaysia fully prepared him for the heat and humidity of Manila, and he certainly prospered under the same stifling outdoor weather conditions in Kinshasa a year earlier.

Ali's physical training for Manila may not have been his hardest camp, Howard Cosell noted right before that Muhammad had a bit of a paunch which Ali cheerfully dismissed. But racehorses don't win through physical preparation so much as being competitively raced into condition. Muhammad was like a winning race horse.

So even if Frazier's face was unmarked, it remained a fact that in round 14, he was missing wildly and the punches of both had been reduced to slaps. But before Joe's face began to swell, Ali was already out to an early lead, and Frazier never caught up. He was spectacular in the middle rounds, but expended himself with the constant power he was unleashing to no avail.

By round 14, Muhammad was actually knocking him backwards, and regardless of Frazier's compromised sight, he was no longer punching with any power at close quarters, and his hands weren't busy anymore. Ali was doing some dancing on his powerful legs, and his shots were straight and sharp, especially from long range. Although both of them were doing some slapping (according to Eddie Futch), Muhammad was the harder puncher by that late stage.

As round 14 began, Ken Norton, sitting to the left of Don Dunphy through his commentator's headset said, "I got it 8-4-1 (Ali)." Frazier guesstimated that it was 120 degrees Fahrenheit under the additional heat of the television lights, and Muhammad lost five pounds, but the main story of his previous bout with Bugner was indeed the searing heat there.

Frazier's last really active year was 1967. He cut back to three bouts in 1968, then no more than two fights a year. His bouts didn't necessarily last a long time, and he only fought a total of eight rounds in 1972, four rounds each against easy prey Terry Daniels and Ron Stander. It was actually his training and style of fighting that wore him down as arthritis progressed. He was not that impressive in his rematch with Ellis, then being charged up for Manila worked against him as he unloaded his shots which would have knocked down walls.

Following Manila, Ali let his body go a bit. He didn't look good physically for Coopman at 226, but knew he didn't need to be. He expected another easy win over Young and of course looked really dreadul and sloppy at 230, but just six weeks later, he looked fully recovered from Manila for Dunn at a trim 220. That's the match which showed he had much more left than Frazier.

Muhammad looked absolutely skinny in comparison to the giant Gorilla Monsoon when he stupidly forayed into professional wrestling, but it was that damned cheap shooting Inoki who nearly caused his leg to be amputated, and he could no longer plant for power. Bret Hart stated that 100% of a professional wrestler's job is to protect the person being worked against from injury. A guy like Bruno Sammartino would have done business with Ali, keeping his boxing ability fully intact. Kenny Jay and Buddy Wolfe showed how to perform with Muhammad.

What Ali would've done after his wrestling foray had he not gone into the ring with Inoki is interesting. Norton was clearly in decline, as shown by his subpar showing with Middleton. The Ali of the Dunn bout would've won Norton III without much controversy, he would've knocked out Evangelista, and maybe been able to stay away from Shavers after Earnie stunned him the first time, then stop the Acorn before the final bell. Leon Spinks might not have been competitive either. Frazier on the other hand, didn't have enough in the tank to win six straight after Manila, even if he didn't rematch Foreman. Shavers might've killed Frazier after Manila.


Dramatic narrative, but immediately following the match, the kneeling Ali told Don Dunphy in the ring that it was specifically round ten where he had serious doubts about coming out on top. But as it entered the Championship Rounds, he was on his way with Joe declining. Muhammad was teeing off in round 11 with Frazier missing some, even at close quarters. Joe actually had his back against the corner and against the ropes at times in the 11th. If Joe's sight hadn't gotten worse after round 11, he still probably doesn't last to the final bell. He was getting battered with four rounds to go.

 

If my aunt had balls, she'd be a tranny...