Would You Take 10K in Cash To Not Watch MayPac and Never Find Out What Happened?

And Ducklerr, if you work at a private equity, you know that it's easy to make money in this environment due the price of one of the main driving factors of commerce.

Unfortunately, you need to have money in order to make money, at least any real money.

If you really are who you say you are, you should be making out like a bandit. It's hard to say when you'll have an opportunity like this again.

 

Obviously you won't have the ability to impact any of the big players. If you're talking about working alone from home out of your own pocket it's going to be very difficult to compete with firms who have teams dedicated to optimizing returns on the lower end of the market. I remember my first year on a trading desk. You're basically a reasonably well paid automaton carrying out instructions from the little voice in your ear who's getting his information from a team of 5-20 ****ysts who are also paid reasonably well to understand exactly how to optimize specific market segments.

 

For all of you, this is probably the last opportunity. There are some incredibly ROUGH times ahead.

I don't even want to think about it. And the problem is, even if you know what's going to make money next, so does someone else, and they already have money there, even if their position would seem insane to a rational person.

So you can't just think one step ahead, or even two steps ahead, but three steps ahead. And even then, I can't think of what's next and I don't like the idea of playing the inverse.

 

Oh believe me, it's a wonderful time for us. Our firm is LBO and distressed asset focused and we're making our 5 year exits on recession investments. But I've never been a big believer in the one man trading desk.

 

I understand that, but with the advent of ETFs, you don't really need to know the financials of every equity. It seems like it's more advantageous to play the macros.

You can see what the big guys are looking at by observing their overall volume and you can research something broad instead of being so parochial which will result in hours of your time being wasted.

Of course, major players have an advantage concerning information, but small guys are faster.

 

Agreed

 

A recession still looms though, but it's in the distance. It just depends on geo-political factors and how fast tight petroleum producers can get back on-line. But even then, there is an issue of rising capex and reduced production.

In fact, the break even point is high enough to cause an increase in the price of the underlying commodity of enough significance to put our economy in a tailwind. If history is a good representation, I would say a year later, we'll have a contraction, but the markets will probably react prior to that.

 

You've hit the nail on the head. As you know, in my line of work we rely on these cycles and hope that our exits more than justify the lean times.

You're a smart guy and I think what we have is a difference in risk nature. I'm very averse. I never did prop when I was in trading and I've never made a capital investment that didn't come straight out of my share in a holding income to increase my return since making partner. To each his own and if you have the knowledge and the stones to work the market then more power to you.

 

Easy Money! We know who wins this fight. Floyd has already paid off the entire universe. Last I heard Pac was so shot, he's practically on his death bed. Why bother with the fight?

 

I'm not smart or risk averse. I'm desperate.

I just happened to stumble upon the writings of one of the lead advisors to the world's most successful commodity traders in the last decade. From there, I acquired as much information as I could.

 

For their combined earnings in this fight I would take it

 

I hope you can understand the natural skepticism when someone says he can give you a 1,200% return within the year. Especially when you've spent years taking calls from 29 year olds at Citi who swear they have an industrial hardware company doing (75M) EBITDA that just needs a few operational changes to get in the green.