Zhang is about 22lbs heavier than Joyce.

whats there to say, **** happens.
it goes up when i see him actually boxing with skill. its not like hes fighting some boxing elite here, hes fighting some old man with more going for him than a rock head.
i dont dislike joe, hes fun to watch, and he seems like a stand up guy,...but i see what i see.

 

I recall many posts like this prior to the Dubois fight in fact they made up the majority, saw fewer like this before the Parker fight but he still had many doubters and have seen very few now leading up to the Zhang fight.

I think you're in for a surprise, I picked Joyce to beat Dubois and Parker when many picked against him. Zhang is dangerous but Joyce is far more skilled than you give him credit for. He often half blocks or rolls with shots he takes, when he does take a shot flush it's usually against an opponent who's power he has no respect for.

With Zhang we'll see the Joyce from the Dubois fight hence why he's come in light, work behind the jab, not giving Zhang chances to counter and make the counter puncher chase him, forcing Zhang out of his usual counter punching style while at the same time making Zhang have to initiate more than he'd like. Once Zhang starts to fatigue then Joyce will go through the gears until he overwhelms him and stops him.

 

Puzzling move for Joyce. He seemed to be very fit and powerful at 270 plus. He was always going to have the stamina and foot speed advantage over Zhang regardless of weight. The only thing coming in this light amounts to is making him a little less durable.

 

But you don't see what you can't see. You only see him as being slow and often negligent when it comes to defence.

What you seem to have missed is that he has one of the better jabs in the division, it's heavy, busy and versatile, in fact only Fury has a better jab.

Joyce also has underrated movement. While he does like to press and so often stands right in front of an opponent when he decides to move he moves well laterally. I'd say only Fury and Usyk have better movement than him.

You also don't see how clever he is in terms of shot selection and variety. He throws a lot, one reason he can throw so much is that he often throws a lot of light punches, which are not meant to do much damage but are designed to manipulate his opponent to create openings for harder shots. He'll throw a light hook to widen an opponents guard to he can drive a straight down the middle, touch an opponent with a jab, so they tighten their guard to he can come round the side with a hook.

He also moves his head and upper body a lot unlike say Joshua or Hrgovic who have no head movement and rely just on their size and movement to avoid shots. Joyce in contrast can fight an ultra aggressive style and while he does get caught he also slips a lot of shots.

 

Zhang has one of those hot today, quietly and embarrassingly forgotten about tomorrow qualities all about him. Kambosos was the last one that I can think of who had that kind of fall in people's estimations. Before that it was Ruiz. Maybe I'm forgetting a few people in between.

Once Joyce stops him, and does it relatively easily, you won't hear a peep out of how good Zhang is. It'll be failing kidneys, old man, drew with Jerry Forrest all the way to the end. A shame. He is actually quite a solid HW, just not as good as people are saying he is, or how bad people will say he is once Joyce stops him.

 

what his opponents do wrong is they remain in front of him after connecting their shots. its as if they expect him to be more affected than he is. joyce takes the shots and immediately returns fire, and finds his target because theyre still there. all you have to do is swing your overhand right and roll out, in order to beat joyce. sounds simple, and it is, thats why im shocked nobody has prepared for that yet. and thats why i dont believe the teams hes faced so far know what theyre doing. when joyce finally gets beat, it will be because they land their shots and move from in front of him. i dont know if zhang will employ that tactic, but im betting he will put enough hurt on joyce to get it done whether he uses it or not, just because hes a big enough boy to ride joyce out till its done.

 

This I do agree with, Dubois and Parker both lack the ability to throw and then evade the counter, especially Parker it's always been one of my pet peeves with him.

I don't think Zhang can pull it off either, while he's a dangerous counter puncher, I don't see Joyce giving him the same opportunities he gave Parker to counter as Joyce knew Parker isn't a counter puncher and so could be aggressive knowing nothing would come back as long as he's throwing.

Quite frankly other than Fury and Usyk I can't see anyone else being able to pull off what you said. Maybe Joshua can pull it off if he gets his head back in the game.

 

I think Joyce beats Zhang up pretty good

 

Joe's skills seem to be a blind spot to some people. I don't say that to insult them. Some very good posters who are usually spot on with their analysis get tripped up by him. I guess he's so unorthodox and so awkward looking that it's just very difficult to find some sort of intellectual entry point to seeing what he's doing. It's worth making the effort though. He's the type of fighter that broadens your understanding of the sport by forcing you out of your comfort zone of what you think you know about the sport.

Can't say I disagree with anything you wrote above. One thing about his jab, he really commits to going to the body with it which can really be an offsetter as well as physically draining to keep taking or defending against. His junk punches I used to think were just shoeshining, or Joe not knowing how to throw full power combinations in close. Now I see they're part of his tactic of opening up his opponents to solid single shots which his opponent isn't expecting or adequately defending against. Were he a smaller or weaker man I don't think that tactic would work, but with Joe even his cuffing arm punches carry weight and he can throw them like that all night, so why not integrate them into his tactics?

 

perhaps. im basing what i see on the little ive seen of zhang. i dont see him mobile or athletic enough to beat him by just using that tactic consistently. what i see is a solid man, strong enough to survive joes shots long enough to hurt him with his. he just has to let his hands go enough to not let joe accumulate punishment on him. he needs to hurt joe before joe outlasts him.

 

He jabs to the chest, Something foreman always banged on about

 

Zhang ko or Joyce ud

 

If the odds are good, a moderate bet on Zhang would be wise. Joyce will get hit with big punches, it’s as inevitable as death and taxes. The difference here is he’s going to be somewhat chinnier than he is in his normal hulking form.

 

I think he's looking to maximise his movement as much as possible. I see Joyce using a lot of angles in combination with his up and down jab to offset Zhang and prevent him setting his feet for the big shots. Expect to see Zhang turtling up quite a bit and whiffing hail Mary lead hooks and unleveraged crosses against a Joyce who's constantly turning him and walking him into straight rights and cuffing OH hooks. We might not see the heavy handed devastation of a 270lbs Joyce that's steamrollering a smaller weaker opponent but it'll be a pretty brutal and consistent wearing down of Zhang that'll result in a stoppage nonetheless.

 

If I was Zhang I'd be looking to throw the kitchen sink at Joe and not worry about not being in the perfect position to throw my best stuff. I don't know if Zhang can mentally do that. He seems a bit too well-schooled to fight that kind of sloppy fight, though ironically that'd net him the most success. Most likely he does what he did against Hrgovic, try to pick his spots to explode with heavy combinations, in between doing very little but probing away with his lead hand behind a high guard.