Bubble-Zoned: the conundrum of borderline IBHOF candidates on stacked ballots.

Tough spot to be in...

The class to be inducted this year into the modern category* included Shane Mosley (er, Sr. that is... The man nicknamed "Sugar", born Shane Donte Mosley, later changed to Shane Andre Mosley, three division world champion), Bernard Humphrey "Executioner/Alien" Hopkins, Jr. and Juan Manuel "Dinamita" Márquez Méndez. Left behind in the cut in their collective first year of eligibility were Jorge Armando "El Travieso/The Lollipop Cowboy" Arce Armenta, Timothy Ray "Desert Storm" Bradley, Jr., Vuyani "Carousel Kid" Bungu, Joel "El Cepillo" Casamayor Johnson, Diego "Chico" Corrales, Jr., Carl Martin "The Cobra" Froch, Sergio Gabriel "Maravilla" Martínez, Antonio Deon "The Magic Man" Tarver and Israel "Magnifico" Vázquez Castañeda.

*with the actual ceremony set for next year, lumped together with 2021's class

Now, on tap we have, for 2021:

"Pretty Boy" Floyd Joy Sinclair/Mayweather, Jr.
Wladimir "Doctor Steelhammer" Klitschko
James Nathaniel "Lights Out" Toney
Andre Michael "Son of God" Ward
Miguel Angel "Junito" Cotto

...all of whom last competed in 2017. And there were some damn good fighters, including multiple-division champions (better than some guys in the hall already) of whom that qualifying factor is true but who didn't even make the ballot, like Vakhtang "Raging Bull" Darchinyan, Orlando "Siri" Salido Rivera, and Steve Ormain "USS" Cunningham.

Then in 2022 it'll be:

Roy Levesta "Captain Hook" Jones, Jr.
Tomasz "Goral" Adamek
Shinsuke "Left of God" Yamanaka
Avetik "King Arthur" Abrahamyan
Lucas Martín "Cold Blooded" Matthysse
Cristian Ricardo Lucio "El Diamante" Mijares
Brian Costales "Hawaiian Punch" Viloria
Phongskorn "Pongsaklek Sitkanongsak" Wonjongkam
David Deron "Haymaker" Haye
Takahiro "Iced Oolong" Aōh
"Lil" Abner Mares Martinez

...all of whom last competed in 2018. Remember, there are only three spots per class available in the Modern category. RJJ is a clear first-ballot shoe-in; there's a fair amount of parity in allocating the other two slots.

and in 2023, presumably:
Zabdiel "Super" Judah
Denis Aleksandrovich "The White Swan" Lebedev
Muamer "Kapt'n" Hukic
Humberto Armando "La Zorrita" Soto Ochoa
and perhaps Nonito Gonzales "The Filipino Flash" Donaire, Jr. and Gennady Gennadyevich "Triple G" Golovkin, if they are no longer feeling the inner fire once the COVID-19 smoke clears. (both were like myself born in '82; GGG is already 37 while the Flash and I will be joining him this fall)

Note: I would love to say Akira Yaegashi and Jean Pascal will be coming eligible in 2023, but knowing those guys they're going to bang on and break our hearts...

So not only will newcomers like Judah and Huck need to jockey for position among themselves, but the second-timers like Pong and Haye (basically whoever didn't get in with Roy in the Class of '22) as well as the "third time's the charm" crowd from 2021 (whoever didn't join PBF) like say Cotto, and finally the repeatedly jilted rollovers starting to sputter low on hope by that point, like Bradley and Casamayor...and some waiting for their call-up far longer than even them.

Here is a post of mine from a Hall of Fame ballot discussion in June of 2010 - a decade ago:

Now, the "Lone Star Cobra" did finally get in (class of '19), but it took forever - and the IMO equally worthy Archer remains out in the cold.

Notable champions of more recent stock who are queued up outside Canastota include the likes of José Luis "El Temible" Castillo and Iván "El Niño de Hierro" Calderón Marrero. Now, before you say they - and the other bubble-dwellers mentioned above - simply were not quite good enough to deserve the honors, have a gander at the class of 2015:

Riddick “Big Daddy” Bowe, “Prince” Naseem Hamed, and Ray “Boom Boom” Mancini.

Yuck. No disrespect to any of those guys, but half of the aforementioned boxers are greater than one if not two if not all three of them.

My point is, a lot comes down to luck of the draw - that is, when everybody happened to have last fought. Getting in the same year as Floyd Mayweather and Wlad Klitschko (be it James Toney or Miguel Cotto that manages to squeeze his way on the pedestal with them) should really count for a lot more than making that mediocre 2015 list. But it doesn't - it all gets flattened out and they all get recognized equally as "Hall of Fame inductees". On a given year, being "good but not great" is enough - and on another it could be not even close.

 

...and yes, I realize that my list isn't comprehensive and probably missed a few notable world champs who fought their last match in the last couple of years. That was my best (hastened) effort to cobble it together on my own with no comprehensive guiding resource.

And before people start laying in with this or that guy not belonging within a stone's throw of Canastota, know this: IDGAF about your opinion. I'm not of the mind that most of the names in my OP do belong; the fact, however, stands that based on precedent any of them, even the worst, could be said to stand a reasonable chance during a particularly weak 'down' year (like '15). Meanwhile some of the best of the also-ran sorts are perhaps doomed to never get in because of Greats with a capital G sharing their first ballot or two, beyond which point the bloom starts to come off the rose and the voting body starts just taking certain names for granted and thinking of them as 'losers'...

My whole point is to point out the inherent absurdity of that situation. Not throwing shade at the Hall or its electors necessarily, and you can search me for a better system - just saying, this one as it stands does carry some loopholes via which mediocrities can stand abreast Greats, while overlooked Very Goods look on in disappointed bafflement.

 

Eh, dicey for Tiger, if we're being honest...been on the ballot since 2011 - and like I said, guys linger too long and get saddled w/ that 'loser' stigma, unfairly or not.

Goral won't be up for consideration for a while, since he last fought just twenty months ago. It'll depend how things shake out by then, who doesn't get in this year and next who might be strong competition for him.

The Foul Pole, unless I'm mistaken, has never even been nominated - and if not by now, doubtful he will be.

 

If anyone's confused on this point, btw - they did recently (just last year, in fact) amend the requirements, so now you need to have gone three calendar years since you last fought to be nominated. It did used to be five years, for a long time...so no, you're not going crazy or in a parallel universe.

So like, Jean Pascal for instance - he fought three days before New Year's Eve (2019). He needs to sit out 2020, 2021, and 2022 to be on the 2023 ballot. If he had fought just a week later (or obviously if he laces up again this year), he would need to wait until 2024. Ya dig?

 

I mean, catch-22 - not ever bagging any hardware is probably the biggest thing keeping him out. That and his best actual official win (leaving aside robberies, as most consider the Ruiz decision) is probably...old Spoon? And best result on paper (and performance, arguably) is drawing with Byrd. That falls a bit short of the standard. Even someone like Gatti - who many feel oughtn't be in there - has better wins to his name.

 

I've almost certainly been a bigger fan of Maravilla than you, for longer than you - but even I'd consider it a little bold to declare him definitively greater than SSM. Did you only catch the last bit of Shane's career or something?

 

Yeah, you're probably right - Nicholson probably fetched a higher premium than Spoon at that point.

As for a Polish heavyweight champ - we could actually see a Kownacki or Ugonoh type land a lucky punch on some glass cannon paper champ like Wilder, but nobody active today will ever capture that nation's (and worldwide diaspora's) hearts the way Golota did.

In the lower weights I'd say Diablo Włodarczyk and Rafał Jackiewicz have come the closest.

But that's probably where the line is drawn - sentimental favorite, and hero in Poland. All the cards are lain out and posterity won't flatter his record to deceive futue generations any more than past.

 

It is in the USA, dude.

A little implicit bias maybe comes with the territory, if you'll pardon the pun.

Anyway, that "make-up" factor is all well and fine until it trickles over into the next year and then another until before you know it there is a snowball or domino effect situation where several worthy candidates have been passed over to make room for what just happens to have been a confluence of must-go first-ballot guys...meaning that eventually you are left with a difficult choice between leaving those overdue 'leftovers' hanging or inducting new guys on about the same level as them.

And yeah, there's no 'problem' as in the system needs an overhaul. It just creates a particularly awkward conundrum for those affected by such a circumstance. Guys who don't get in because of a slew of ATG's blocking their path have a legit gripe when the likes of Bowe, Hamed, and Mancini get to waltz on in unopposed...just because that is the way the cookie happened to crumble.