Ajays Sydney Autumn Carnival Lamb Cutlet

Don't chase your losses, you'll end up living out of cardboard boxes.

As for Zirconium, if he don't win today he needs to be put in the little black book of *******s. He's a 5yr old now and even though Zabeel's are late maturing types he has been promising to win for a while but always finds a way to get beat. In a class 2 event I'll have something on him because he should win but I doubt we'll get over 4/1

 

EARLY MAIL FOR ROSEHILL:

Current fixed odds for Race 5 at Rosehill;

Murtajil 9/1 + Cravings 13/1

Suggestion: $58 Murtajil + $42 Cravings. COST $100

RETURN: Murtajil $580 or Cravings $588.

 

PLENTY OF VALUE AROUND THE COUNTRY TOMORROW IF YOU CAN FIND A WINNER. With two races I believe that backing two runners in each is worthwhile if you get the value currently on offer, especially HERE DE ANGLES in the G1 Goodwood at Morphettville which is quoted at 5/1. For a saver in the same race I recomend SHARKBITE at 25/1.

With six group races at Rosehill tomorrow including the G1 Rosehill Guineas I have found my fair share of selections although I can honestly say it's a tricky day so some of my bets are from interstate. My Rosehill selections that aren't a part of the "bank" will be placed below tomorrows bets.

BANK $800

BET 1: Rosehill R5: No.3 Murtajil $20 Win + No.8 Cravings $20 Win

BET 2: Rosehill R7: No.11 Red Ruler $10 Win

BET 3: Morphettville R3: No.1 Shadrach $30 Win

BET 4: Morphettville R6: No.4 Zagreb $50 Win

Bet 5: Morphettville R7: No.2 Here De Angels $50 Win + No.11 Sharkbite $20 Win

TOTAL COST $200


Rosehill selections are;

R2 No.11 Dupworth e/w
R3 No.5 Pravana win
R4 No.10 Samantha Miss win
R6 No.10 Rio Osa win
R9 No.5 Friday Creek win

 

Yep, some horses just can't draw a barrier and Murtajil is one of them.

That said Murtajil's barrier doesn't really concern me tomorrow as the 1400m at Rosehill isn't that bad. Futhermore there is a good variety of on pace runners and backmarkers that should provide enough pace for him to slip in just behind the leaders without getting caught wide.

His last start 3rd was a ripper carrying 59.5kgs as the first two placegetters had 53.5/53kgs respectively. First up from a spell since running in the Caulfield Guineas back in October, Murtajil found the slow tempo and big weight against him, showing me enough though to suggest that he'll win a big race this preparation. The colt has furnished into an atheletic rising 4yr old that has the class to deal with tomorrows field although I have a healthy respect for Cravings who still hasn't shown us his full potential.

As for the price, I guess horses like Triple Honour, Pistols and Serious Speed will stop it from getting any shorter than 7/1 but I doubt very much you'll get 15/1 for such a quality racehorse. Once the pros do their speed maps and ratings they'll jump on him.

 

:think How about next week you do your selections first.

You are aware that Rosehill has posted a SLOW track for tomorrow. While that won't worry Cravings it was the reason why I didn't put Samantha Miss among my "BANK" selections. As for Red Ruler he is a wet track duffer so you may have saved your arse with Marching....

oh sorry, Marching hates wet tracks too.

Who knows, maybe it'll dry up in time for the Guineas.

 

They're throwing the blinkers on Samantha Miss in the hope of sharpening her up.

Pravana has improved out of sight and could be the best bet on the card....if every other horse runs up to their current form. Don't forget there is an Oaks winner in the field (Rena's Lady) among other stakes performed runners.

Sharkbite is excellent each way value but it is a Group 1 scamper over 1200m with 20 runners. At least a quarter of the field will cop interference.

I wouldn't suggest putting your house on anything except a block of land. An all up is more like a cyclone than a block of land when it comes to your house. As for the two selections, I can't knock Flying Object who is a consistant mare but it would suck to see her win at good odds only to have the 2nd leg go down.

I really like Zagreb to beat Zarita over the 2500m (wouldn't mind switching jockeys though.) Knockout horse could be the other filly El Daana, all three trained by David Hayes.

Have a winning day.

 

I'm not sure that Murtajill didn't run out the 1400m because if you look at the rest of the field he held them off quite well, however I do believe that had the track been firm he would have put enough of a gap between himself and the filly to win the race.

I've also had to watch my best bet of the day (Zagreb) run 2nd after a disgraceful ride by Dwane Dunn who always finds a way to screw me.

Those two 2nds have hurt me and I'm broke. Have stolen the wife's tampon money to back Sharkbite. If it don't win she'll be out for blood. :twisted:

 

...and maybe he's just a cat. Some horses lift when it comes down to a fight over the last 100m and I admit I thought he was going to win halfway up the straight. Then again maybe the filly could be something special.