Actually let me rephrase: 60% chance that Berto physically overwhelms Alexander, with the caveat that most of the remaining 40% is taken up by the large-minority chance that once a derp, forever a derp and ring IQ proves the difference maker in the face of more concrete advantages. In other words, my same exact prediction breakdown for the co-main event, swapping in Quillin for Berto and Love for Alexander.
It's definitely at least close to 50/50 in my eyes but I'll lean toward Devon winning a close decision. Berto will frustrate those who picked him by being inactive in the back half.