I like the angles and theories you bring up, I agree mostly, this does give Fury an advantage and wiggle room. However I think the power players want Fury Joshua next.
You are completely overlooking how brutally he lost that "humiliating" defeat. It was so bad that he did not fight for another 15 months. Saying that it was a duck, and hinting that Joshua is a coward, is just dumb.
I think Dubois would be favourite over any version of AJ because he is more aggressive, would likely land first and take AJ out. Dubois has also shown he can get knocked down multiple times and still win, which AJ has not. But AJ is better than Dubois in some respects and the Usyk fights make this clear.
I think Dubois took a lot more chances against Usyk and left himself open. He pressed the action and paid the price, but that was his only way to win. Joshua fought a losing strategy both fights. I don't give him much credit for making in the distance and landing the odd right hand when that was never going to be enough to win. Refusing to adapt and sell out means little to me, and I certainly don't rate it as some great moral victory as many here do. Dubois can at least as he "rolled the dice".
This isn't my recollection. The best effort made over those 4 fights was Joshua 2, imo. He tried to push Usyk back, landed the most shots, tried to jump on Usyk after hurting him. Dubois in fight 1 was being pushed back, which even AJ in fight 1 generally was not. Dubois failed to jump on Usyk even after the low blow. He seems to have better stamina than AJ, so quitting is less excusable. He also seems to have an inferior chin, getting wiped out twice inside 14 rounds without throwing many punches. The explanation to me is that Joshua is the more versatile boxer, harder to drop and less of a quitter (at least in the past), with a bit more height and reach, and maybe better combos/counters. But Dubois tends to be more aggressive, has better stamina, better powers of recovery when seriously hurt and a more authoritative jab. Joshua seems to be more of an insecure bully fighter, whereas Dubois has less of a brain and less capacity for self-doubt. This made Dubois a bad matchup for Joshua, who was untested against a prime puncher who could match his core attributes, and who would take the initiative to put him on the back foot and KO him.
The mythical fighter that is Joshua in Usyk-Joshua II is comically overrated. He wasn't going to win using that style and didn't press the action intelligently. He was comprehensively outboxed. Landing a shot in the 9th and throwing 20-30 wild follow-ups, none of which landed, did nothing. He got beat up immediately after. It's insane that people can see a fighter lose 10-2 or 9-3, then talk about how they're a "versatile boxer". What adjustments did he make over 24 rounds? Trying to fight a nip-tuck boxing match against one of the greatest, slickest southpaws of all time is admitting defeat. If you want to know who has better combinations and counters between Dubois and Joshua, just watch their fight.
If he wants to duck the rematch he seemingly has no business calling out Fury or demanding big fights.
What incentive does Fury have to fight Joshua? Decisively losing to Dubois and refusing a rematch suggests the top guys shouldn't bother with him.
Money. Also, Fury is 37, aka in the twilight of his career. The last time Fury beat anyone in the top 10 was in 2022... when he KO´d Whyte. Oh, and Joshua himself is 36, also in the twilight of his career, and the last time he beat anyone in the 10 was in 2023... if we are being generous. Both of them are done at world level, and all they have left is their name value. To act as if Joshua is not deserving of fighting Fury is simply laughable. And acting as if Joshua not rematching Dubois is a duck, is also laughable. The man got beaten from pillar to post, knocked down over and over again, lost nearly every second of that fight, and got brutally KNOCKED THE **** OUT! There is nothing to duck, he got obliterated, the rivalry ended then and there. Genuinely, how often do we see such one sided world title fights result in a rematch?
If Fury won he would receive little credit due to the Dubois debacle and a loss would be disastrous to his legacy. And several guys are more deserving of a Fury fight than Joshua at present
8-4 was more realistic for me and most observers, and I am obviously not a Joshua fan. After 9 rounds it was in the balance. Dubois never even made it 9 rounds in two attempts, and he was backing up more and throwing less than Joshua. Joshua's attack in 9 may not have been all that effective but he did go for it, whereas Dubois barely did after the low or borderline punch. In fight 2, Joshua went forward more, he worked the body more and he didn't bite as hard on Usyk's feints. Those were good adjustments that made things more competitive, though they no doubt came from Joshua's training team rather than Joshua himself. If Joshua hadn't wasted energy in round 9 trying to finish Usyk it could have been closer still, and given Joshua's A-side corruption the 8-4 became a 7-5. Given the boxing politics, Usyk did not win by a comfortable margin. A robbery was conceivable. Also, Joshua got battered in the last rounds of the 1st and 2nd fight but despite stamina and recovery that seems worse than Dubois', he never got dropped (whereas Dubois did 4x), which tells me other attributes have to be superior. Dubois beating Joshua doesn't mean his combos and counters are better, any more than Fury beating Wilder x2 makes him a bigger puncher. Dubois tends to be more aggressive than Joshua and has a better jab, and after he landed the right hand in round 1 Joshua with his poor recovery was screwed. If Dubois fought a clone of himself he could easily get blown out early too and look like a bum.
This quite literally goes both ways. The exact same applies to Joshua too. Who gives a ****? Both of them are basically retired at this point. They are done at the world level. Joshua vs Fury is a fight the fans have wanted for a long time; I do not give a **** if Kabayel "is more deserving of it", I as a fan want that fight, and you should too. Also, the irony of you stating that a win over Joshua here would be meaningless for Fury, while claiming that Joshua should be re-matching Dubois, is simply ****ing hilarious to me.