I doubt HBO picks up his next fight, especially now that there isn't a big fight they can build him up for (since Pavlik lost). He fights mostly on Friday nights anyway. Bute against Brinkley, in the Bell Centre, Friday night - they still sell out the place and get Canadian TV dollars, and put him as a special FNF headliner to get him continued US exposure. That's my guess anyway. The other alternative which MIGHT be feasible is to have it at an even bigger venue (Olympic Stadium?), and have it run as a September 18 double-header with Froch-Abraham (where they've been looking for a neutral site). That way they can get a little extra cash from all of the worldwide networks broadcasting that event (ARD, Polsat, Showtime, Supersport) and they can probably even get the card on Sky PPV that way. Probably too many cooks in the pot to make that happen though.
Unless HBO is completely ******ed they will. It's their only leverage to offset SHowtime and the rest at 168.
Why buy this crappy fight, when they can save their money and buy the next one closer to when the Super Six ends? HBO will ALWAYS be able to outbid Showtime when it wants to. Hell, after the Super Six is over, I guarantee you the winner will be an HBO fighter, unless the contract says he needs to stick with Showtime after the tourney is over. Unless they can pair Bute-Brinkley up with a fight that matters, it's just a waste of money for HBO. They've been a lot better about not spending decent change on meaningless fights lately, especially since the Dawson-Tarver II fiasco.