Froch is a Lacy-style style plodder, beating him would do calzaghe no good in the long run. People would also view it as ducking Dawson
A Dawson fight would be my top choice. I'd love that fight. However, there's a number of fights that I wouldn't mind seeing instead and wouldn't ***** about, and Froch is one of them. The others (without getting into the odds of it actually happening) would be Hopkins II, Taylor, Bute, Glen Johnson, or Kessler II. I would've said the winner of Abraham-Pavlik before, but it's clear now that the timing wouldn't match up. If it isn't Dawson, any of the other 6 would be acceptable. Anything less, and I'd be at least somewhat pissed.
Why should he fight Dawson when there is a possibility he could lose? Does Calzaghe want to end his career with a loss in front of his home crowd? Calzaghe said quote on quote " the right fight for me", not the best possible opponent who can beat him. Just imagine the shock in millennium stadium would be when Calzaghe gets beat convincingly. That's not the type of fight Calzaghe wants. Carl Froch would be the fight Calzaghe wants (or even Glen Johnson), and it's not because he's doing it for boxing, or the fans. He would be doing it for himself and there is nothing wrong with that.
If he decides to fight Dawson it would be after his fight in millennium stadium (whoever the opponent may be). And it would in the be USA (like Las Vegas) so he can save the embarrassment of being humiliated in front of his home crowd.