Canelo Alvarez is NOT beating Austin Trout

I like the breakdown BBall. Those sequential screenshots are something I'm gonna have to use myself!

I agree in the sense that Canelo's failing point will be his relative lack of creativity in engaging. He'll stack patiently, then when he thinks he's got you, go for a committed combination to the head and body. But even though he's good at controlling the center, I think Trout might be better at using the perimeter and making Canelo work for it.

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If you look at the Lopez fight in other spots, he tends to follow his opponents around. Now I'm not sure how much Cotto's own depreciation contributed to allowing Trout the space to use his jab as well as he did, but prime for prime, Cotto's ability to cut off a ring has been superior. If Trout could escape a still-competitive Cotto's cornering tactics, he might have even better success making Canelo follow him around. Especially since Trout's lead hand is such a ***** to get past, he can throw something off of it or feint to get his left hand in. That's something I hadn't seen before from him so I favored Cotto to knock the jab down and slip in to land the better punches. I'm not sure Canelo is seasoned enough to get past it.

If I had to give Canelo a plan for success though, it would be to punch with Trout. Cotto had his best moments rushing Trout on the retreat and following him up. When he did that, he got Trout to the ropes (where he encountered his second problem: Trout's ability to clinch). Given that he's taller, a bit quicker (at least quicker than that version of Cotto), has a greater frame and greater reach, Canelo should try to hang back a bit and explode with more mobility than he's shown before after Trout initiates his in-and-out. He should paw the right jab down, slip left to land his right, and feint up top before ripping into Trout's body. Left downstairs, left upstairs. Then step laterally to avoid his escape towards the center.

For Trout, assuming he can control the center early on, backing up Canelo would be a brilliant thing to do. He did it to Cotto and if he can control Canelo with his jab early, he can likely do it to him to. Walk him down in spots, since Canelo is probably extremely ineffective backing up. I remember that one moment Mosley got Canelo to the ropes and he seemed to panic a bit. Step out, watch as Canelo resumes stalking, push him back and repeat the process against his momentum.

IMO this is a 50-50 fight. Canelo is visibly improving to fight to fight and I can no longer say he's just a prospect with some hype behind him. On paper I favor Trout to win, but I have a feeling Canelo is going to fight a smart fight, fight patiently, and make his punches count. If he combines patience in setting up his shots with the eagerness to walk through some of Trout's shots to land his own, he make it his fight and can win.

 

:happy BBall does it again..

Canelo doesn't have the footwork or activity level to keep up with Trout.

 

people acting like Canelo is an animal after beating...

oh wait..

 

its a pick'em if it were to take place on an even playing field but this fight will be in texas under a gbp promotion with at least one gbp judge, presumably gale van hoye.

and thats why canelo will open as a -250 favorite.

 

Canelo will send trout back into obscurity

 

While i think Alvarez has a good chance to impress in this bout the more i hear him talk the more i feel he more worried about whats after this fight instead of whats in front of him, now I haven't made trout out to be this monster after the cotto fight though i felt he won the 119-110 score were absurd. Alvarez maybe THAT confident in victory but in my estimation Alvarez needs to stop talking about September and start worrying about April. Neither of these fighters are proven commodities, out if the two Trout seems more ready for the big stage since he has the most legit win of the two, ultimately Alvarez maybe setting himself up for the upset if he's not taking this fight serious, and right now nothing about him says he's serious when you have the biggest fight of your career in front of you, it's not the time to be talking bout mayweather Martinez or whatever there looking at.

 

Excellent analysis Bball I couldn't agree more. I said that movement gives Canelo fits. Hell Gomez was giving him the business with his movement alone until the bull**** stoppage. Trout has great movement fights smart not easy to hit and has a good jab and is big. He will stick and move on Canelo outboxing him not giving him a easy target to tee off on. This will tire out and frustrate Canelo as the fight progresses. I think Trout has the tools and the IQ to pull it off but I think he may lose in a bad decision in a fight he clearly won.

 

And people act like Canelo is an animal after beating.....well nobody.

 

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he beat a shot cotto now everybody thinks hes g's us

 

His style would always give Canelo fits. He's big slick and has a good jab.

 

I'm sure this is an excellent breakdown bball, but I stopped reading after you said Angulo or Kirkland would've been acceptable fights.

 

I believe style wise yes he gives Canelo allot of Trouble, but I also believe Canelo is going to surprise allot of us come fight night I am picking Trout to win but dont be shocked if Canelo stops him

 

hardly anyone knew who kelly pavlik was until he knocked out edison miranda.

and then he went on to beat previously undefeated jermain taylor(coming off two wins over hopkins and universally thought of a as pfp candidate)...twice.

just the same that no one really knew of pacquiao(4-1 underdog) prior to his win over barrera.

the fact that no one knew of trout before his delvin fight is entirely irrelevant and will have no bearing on what happens april 20.

and this breakdown is beyond "decent" and far exceeds the "canelo is going to ko," "canelo is going to stomp," "you guys are going to be suprised how easy canelo travels through trout," "canelo lands a 10 piece" garbage you read he by canelo nthuggers.

http://www.boxingforum24.com/showthread.php?t=463321&page=3


what the **** is a 10 piece?

is that something you buy at kentucky fried chicken?

 

If he stops him he will get full props from me.