I favor Stevenson for a number of reasons.... First of all, he had a dominant performance on his rematch against Boone, which restores back all his confidence... oppositely, Dawson is coming off a humiliating loss against Ward, being stopped by a fighter who isnt even considered as a power puncher..... Stevenson IS Stevenson showed in his last fight, great improvement with punch selection, PHENOMENAL body attack. Also showed a sturdy chin vs Boone's surprise counters he'd load up on. Same type counter that had hurt Ward. His game-stopper punch was a timed uppercut as he telegraphed Boone's last-ditch push coming in. That caught Boone dead in the water. I got Stevenson winning a UD for general purposes, but i half expect Stevenson to stop Dawson....
I actually think at this point in time I'd favor Stevenson. Chad never seems to stay focused for a full fight and that could spell disaster against Stevenson.
Dawson by clear decision, but I hope he really puts it on Stevenson and gets a stoppage. Seems out of character, though, unless he severely outclasses Stevenson first. A definite possibility as he's a more skilled boxer by far and more naturally talented, but I'm also curious to see how he responds to hard shots and if he's gunshy after the beating Ward handed out.
It depends on which Dawson shows up. The one who lost to Pascal, the one who beat easily Hopkins or the dehydrated one who got beat down by Ward? I he damaged goods? If not, he'll win easily. If he is hungrym he'll KO Stevenson. But Dawson may be damaged by his last fight and I can see Stevenson get at him soon in the fight.
The only result that would surprise me would be a competitive Stevenson decision. I wouldn't be too stunned by a Stevenson decisive decision, as that would mean that Dawson is truly well past it, but if it's competitive and Dawson looks good, and Stevenson STILL wins a decision, I would be surprised. I expect Dawson to outbox him to a decision. If Dawson stopped him, I would not be surprised depending on the manner in which he would. And Stevenson as tons of power so even moving up to 175, I could see it carrying. Dawson has semi questionable chin and highly questionable heart issues. Bad combination against power.
The only way I see Stevenson winning a wide decision would be if he hurts Bad Chad early and he never really recovers. I can see it being a competitive decision more so being that its taking place in Canada which will give Stevenson a few rounds based on aggression that he's not really entitled too.