I will be rooting for the smaller man, and i think many people under-estimate his chances, but i'm not as sure on this one as you are.
I like Manny in this fight. When the fight was first announced, I've felt there were serious stylistic problems Manny could present Oscar. Despite the size disparity, Oscar is not what you would call a 'muscle' guy...He doesn't really look to impose his strength during a fight. Against a lighter opponent in Forbes, Oscar would use his forearm or shoulder to bump Forbes into range, if Forbes tried to crowd his left hand. But that was basically it... With his speed I feel Manny can tactically manuever to his right (into DLH's power hand) or to his left (away from the power hand)...How and why would Manny want to move to his right near DLH's jab and hook? While I believe he will actually move predominantly to his left (will explain later) he will need to set a pace that DLH will have to react to in order to tire him for the later rounds, and he doesn't want to follow a set pattern especially early in the fight. Why does he go into the fire? Remember the old axiom of going into a left hook, instead of away from it? If Pac can use his right jab and hook by attacking DLH on a wider right angle (using footspeed), he can force DLH to use the left for defense, something he hates to do!!! During the Mayweather years, Oscar loves to use his right for parrying and blocking, and attacking with his left. This is Oscar's MO, it's how he likes to proceed...Nacho is at the helm now, but can DLH change after all these years? This fight is predicated on spacing...when Manny gets inside, he will have to capitalize. If he lands one punch, he will need to land three or four. Speaking of when Oscar uses his right to block or parry, he will block from the outside in (his right elbow is away from his body), where a Mayweather will block from the inside out...Difference? Plenty! When parrying Pac's straight lefts, Oscar's right arm will be coming down and across his own body, if Pac is pressing hard, Oscar's elbows will be all over the place, presenting holes in his defense, also in some of these instances, Oscar backs up in a straight line. In the Forbes fight, Oscar was uncomfortable when crowded on his left side, he would at times hesitate slightly, and then fire a wide hook upstairs, this is what Manny needs and wants to press the pace. Pacquiao's workarate and reactions are honed by facing the best fighters in the world...DLH is a part time fighter now, and has been for some time. DLH will try to anticipate Pac's punches by reading his footwork, and firing while Pac is firing with his straight left, with a counter left hook...Oscar's left uppercut, off the hook, is a vicious punch...Manny will definitely need to account for DLH's left hand in the clinches...Being the bigger fighter, he has the firepower to turn the fight in the blink of an eye. When Oscar bounces on his toes, he is setting himself, and finding his rhythm. I believe Oscar will win 3 of the first 4 rounds...Manny will need to limit being hit only with single punches, if he is hit, he needs to create space between himself and a follow up combination. If Pac has been capable of producing a fast pace, IMO he starts to take over at the mid point of the fight, he at this time will press by attacking Oscar by circling to his left more and more as the fight proceeds...this way Oscar will be out of positon to fire his left hook...I don't know if Manny can accumulate enough punishment on DLH to stop him, but he will be winning in a dominant fashion near the end of 12 rounds. Manny Pacquiao by decision. GO MANNY!
Well, you probably sensed that my enthusiasm is a wobbly front for my deep concern. But that's boxing. Anything can happen, but sometimes the great ones pull a rabbit out of a hat. This would be one helluva win if Manny beats him.
I'm rooting for De La Hoya against Pacquaio. Excluding Pacman's southpaw stance and quick hands, De La Hoya has a history of eating up smaller aggressive fighters. He hates having to play the role of the aggressor. Whitaker, Mosley I, Hopkins, and Mayweather were all fights where De La Hoya had to march forward. Even the smaller Forbes' style wasn't exactly made to order for him. Pacquaio's speed and southpaw stance will be the main problems for De La Hoya. Pacquiao's high workrate might well be his downfall rather than work to his advantage. It depends how he takes De La Hoya's punches. He's going to get hit in this fight as his defense is anything but bombproof, although it has improved recently. IMO, De La Hoya's speed is being seriously underrated going into this fight. It wouldn't suprise me if the speed advantage Pacquaio has is very slight. De La Hoya inside 6 rounds.
One thing about the bigger fighters in these matchups are the general assumptions about the bigger guy in there. Like he always has all the advantages. They also give up some important ones like speed. Mobility. And usually the lighter the weight, the more combinations they throw. And the big guy is also a bigger target in there as well. Plus, they seem to have problems catching the smaller elusive guy in there. And get caught posing. I think if Manny fights smart with those legs and turns him, he can pepper the guy for the win. A southpaw has a shot. What a win it'd be for a guy that started at 106.
I think the weight will affect Oscar more adversely than Pacquiao. Pacquiao fights at around the weight anyway so I expect his normal attributes, that is, the speed and explosiveness he displayed against Diaz in his last title-winning performance, to be intact. De La Hoya, though he looked fit at yesterday's weigh-in, must have paid a heavy toll to cut back down to 145 pounds. To me, whatever extra weight De La Hoya puts back on is irrelevant; he will find himself well-spent late in the fight. He has a window of opportunity early, but the way Pacquiao will fight, I don't think he can capitalize on that. I predict Manny will not be as aggressive as we are all used to seeing him, instead boxing at a range; but I'm not absolutely positive, and that will reveal itself early enough in the first few rounds. If he does use distance, I think there is a good chance he can outspeed the Golden Boy to take a decision. De La Hoya's always been sneakier on the backfoot than on the front. Manny on points and Oscar by stoppage both are reasonable, the former being slightly more plausible in my opinion.
I want Pac to win, and I think he has a decent chance. Win, lose or draw I admire his old achool mentality in coming up to fight a significantly bigger man. And I'm sure he'll be taking the fight to Oscar. Most of this modern "weight jumping" and belt-collecting stuff is often a lot of hype and superficial achievements, but Manny Pac is genuinely taking a leap up and testing himself in a higher class.
I keep wanting to say Pacquaio will win but I just can't do it. I'm actually looking foward to this fight while the Jones-Calzaghe fight did nothing for me and it was one of the rare big ppv's that I passed on but this one is different. I think this will end up being a good fight and has an ok undercard. For the fight itself I think its a lot closer than some on this thread do. DLH has a size, style, and big fight experience advantage but Pacquaio will have a speed and stamina advantage and is at/near his peak while DLH is years past his. Than in their last fights DLH looked less than stellar and Pacquaio has never looked better. I think the Pacquaio from the Diaz fight could beat the DLH from the Forbes fight. I see Pacquaio with some good moments early. His speed and aggression will give DLH trouble but eventualy the overall pressure from DLH's size and power will wear the smaller man down. Unless DLH gasses late like he has than he'll own the late rounds and probably stop Pacquaio late. DLH by late round stoppage in a good fight.
I'll be rooting for Pacquiao to win this one but when you look at the fact that Oscar has taken punches from guys like Tito, Mosley, Vargas, Quartay,Hopkins and such and such...I don't see where Pac can hurt him. Manny Pac needs to win for the good of boxing so that's where my heart lies.
Pacquiao by tko. I think he's got too much engine for the aging DeLaHoya. He will be comin', and if I'm correct comin' on angles. He'll get in often enough to hurt DLH and turn the momentum and the fight his way. Oscar's best bet is to catch Manny on the way in, if he does, he could take him out, but I don't see it. Stonehands, you made a referrence to Freddie Roach knowing something, having something on Oscar, and of course he would. And what I've heard from someone who knows Roach is that it's arthritis in DLH's arms that's the secret. Now, how he'll use this against him is the question. Trainers on this board might have an answer. One of the first fights in a long time I've liked enough to buy, I'll be watching. Like Oscar, always did, never understood why the Mexican community didn't take to him. Too rich? Too famous? Too good looking? None of those ever made sense to me. But Manny is something else, I love his attitude, his smiling ferocity, his warrior without malice temperment. Either way I'm lookin' for a great fight.
One interesting note. Oscar looks flat emaciated at the weigh-in, his features sunken and gaunt. Anyone who's spent time around the sport knows the danger of this weight loss and gain yo-yo. Even if he rehydrates and gets his weight back into rational territory it can be very draining, leaving him sluggish. Doesn't always happen, but it does happen.
I'm pissed that Pac, one of my favorite fighters today, is taking a virtually no-win type of fight. I sure hope he wins, however.