If he definitely has to move up I think things look bleak for Pavlik. There's too much talent at 168 and 175 is a step too far. I can't see where he goes from here.
I don't know, I think you're right with your description of his power as heavy handed. He'd probably have that Andrade type power at super middle and light heavy, he has enough if his pressure is effective enough, it depends on that. He isn't going to spark anybody out, he rarely did that at middle but he had enough to hurt guys with single shots which he could now lose. But the thing is, Cleverly has actually fought nobody with any power. Oakey, Brancalion, Fry etc, none of them are punchers of note so even if Pavlik's power is overrated its still a big leap from what he's used to.
It be a great fight, Some fighters put it together against better opponents so maybe Clev is sloppy because he feels to comfortable at this current level he's at. Give him a few learning fights and i'd back him to beat Pavlik and beat him well.