I'm not too sure Cotto is very far from his best. Hes no where near what he was right now and who knows if making 147lbs will weaken him. It would be a war for however long it lasts.
Are talking about now or when Cotto fought at 147. Now even at 154lb it is a fight to close to call because I think Miguel is very vulnerable. His punch resistance isn't good. When he fought at 147lb, he was too technically sound for the current Ortiz. Whether he stopped Ortiz or not would be up to how wild Ortiz would allow himself to be.
cotto would actually maintain his composure and land his bombs unlike berto who loses grip under pressure. berto lacks skills and fundamentals, just a good athlete while cotto would jab and control ortiz and make him pay for his aggressiveness
Cotto's excellent jab gives him a big advantage in this fight. Also, the high guard of Ortiz leaves his midsection open to Cotto's deadly left hook to the body. Unlike Berto, Cotto can actually box. Ortiz's last fight against a good boxer in L. Peterson got an unsatisfactory result. I'd like to see him against someone like Alfonso Gomez. Lets see if he beats him in similar fashion as Cotto did.