Montiel close, but I could see it going either way. Castillo is a great boxer, but cuts are starting to be his downfall. If he was fighting Mijares, I'd say Mijares would clearly win by TKO due to cuts. Not sure Montiel punches hard enough or at enough of an angle to make that a huge issue in this fight though.
If this was a prime Castillo I would have definitely picked him to win, but I'm not sure about today's version. Not only have his abilities declined a bit, the last time I saw him fight on Telefetura he didn't fight with any kind of passion or desire to look good. Maybe this fight will motivate him more and he'll look better than he did against lower level fighters? After I rewatch Montiel-Gorres and some recent Castillo fights I'll decide, but right now I'm leaning towards Montiel like everyone else. Mijares should stop Navarro. Navarro doesn't have an iron chin and his face puffs up and cuts up pretty easily. If featherfisted Kirilov could knock him down, stun him a few times, and cut him, then Mijares should be able to stop him. Also, I think Mijares will step his game up and look to impress on a PPV undercard, so unless Navarro is extremely tough he will not last 12 rounds.
After rewatching their fights I think I'm going with Castillo by close decision. I'm worried about him getting cut up, but he hasn't been cut up too badly since having that surgery done to his face. I'm even more worried about his stamina, but Montiel's pace hopefully won't be too much of a problem and I think Castillo will be up by enough points before the late rounds to still win a decision. It's hard to predict because nobody really knows how past-prime Castillo will look on saturday and he hasn't had a big TV fight in a while, so we haven't seen a fully motivated Castillo in over 2 years. I think Castillo has enough left to beat Montiel. His reflexes are worse now and he gets hit more. His workrate is smaller and his speed isn't what it used to be. But he's still an excellent counter-puncher and the better overall fightter. His punches are slightly more accurate than Montiel's. His defense, footwork, and balance is significantly better. Also, Castillo is much better at controlling the distance and I think he has the better chin. It will be very important for Castillo not to get into wild exchanges with Montiel. Also, he will need to stay out of range of Montiel's body shots which will really effect him in the second half of the fight. The outcome of this fight will be decided by who fights whose fight more. If Castillo fights the way Jhonny Gonzalez did against Montiel (staying on the outside and not brawling), he should be able to win a clear decision. I think we'll see the best Castillo in a while and he'll dominate the first half of the fight, then win enough rounds in the second half to get himself a decision win. I wouldn't be surprised if he scored a knockdown on Montiel, more likely because of Montiel's balance than his somewhat vulnerable chin/body. Brooklyn, I noticed you picked Montiel by a considerably wide decision in the predictions thread? Can you explain why you picked him in more detail?
I'm nervous about picking Castillo because he looks like he is in definite decline. I feel like Montiel has more left in the tank. But this is only based of seeing some of their recent fights, which were a while back. I trust your judgement more on this fight.
Yeah.. I'm not too sure either. It's really difficult to predict because sometimes fighters get really motivated for a big fight like this and look better than they did in years and other times they look worse than ever and get blown out. If Castillo doesn't brawl too much I believe he'll win. He might get boos from the audience though for the performance because people are expecting huge action from two Mexican fighters. Montiel is a solid fighter, but he's not elite and I think people think he's slightly better than he actually is because he's been involved in some memorable wars during 2006-2007 and has excited fans. Even an older Castillo could outclass him and confuse him quite a bit with his movement, jab, and quick counterpunching.
I think you have some very good point Huki and know your syuff. I agree with your first pick of Montiel, since i feel he is the fresher fighter, but if this were Castillo of 2 years ago, id pcik Castillo.