Close fight but Margarito would pressure Vargas way too much. I never thought much of Vargas. I never thought much of Margarito until this year. However he has proved me wrong.
Vargas had a short prime b/c he faced Tito...Tito ruined him b/c Vargas kept taking to many KO punches. The shots landed by Tito in the early rounds would of put most guys away. He dented Vargas chin forever after that. Anytime pre-Tito. Vargas would box the living **** out of Margarito who could not box. The pressure would not mean **** b/c Vargas is a strong guy himself and he is not gun shy and would get the best of slow ass Margarito in any exchange..ANY EXCHANGE. There is a big difference in skill and Vargas has that pedigree and Margarito just gets buy on toughness, chin and will. Cotto could not miss his chin, a tougher Vargas who would of brung it to Margarito would of did some damage.
The differance between Cotto & Vargas is that Vargas was bigger and stronger than Cotto. Tony has made a career of bullying welterweights, but Vargas was a good sized, physically strong jnr middle. Tony wouldnt be able to outbull him, and from the outside Vargas would have a clear edge in quickness. Also, Vargas in his prime could maintain a higher workrate than Cotto, so Tony wouldnt overwhelm him with that. Please lets not overrate Tony. He's not unbeatable. Williams beat him, and a prime Nando was a level above Williams.
It all comes down to who has the better condition. (IMO, Margarito at age 30 showed better condition than a prime Vargas) The F'd up thing about it is Fernando is only 30/31 himself...right now!
Vargas is SO underrated. Do people forget how good Vargas was 1999-2000? Borderline elite, I'd say. Just knocking on the door. As big a Cotto fan as I am, this is not sour grapes, I'd never pick this current Cotto over 1999 Vargas.
Vargas, like Cotto, enjoyed having space to think about what he would do. Being roughed up is definately not to his liking. While I'm one of those who believe Tito ruined him with cast-like handwraps, I do believe Vargas had his limitations still. His defense wasn't the best, but he had some pop in his right hand. And he was a good boxer. That said, Margarito wins it. Simply too much work effort, too many punches and a chin way too solid for Vargas to dent. One right hand isn't gonna get the job done against Margarito. You gotta come packing more heat than that. It wouldn't be an easy victory as I think Margarito would hold off a bit to see what Vargas has. But once he figures out how well he handles Vargas' power he will begin walking him down. And Vargas was never a boxer/mover. It either ends in the championship rounds or Margarito takes a UD.
You are speaking in hindsight here. Cotto is a much more effective boxer than Vargas was. Vargas had good technical skills but he was nowhere near as slick as Cotto. He punched slightly harder than Cotto but no, Cotto is definately a better boxer than Vargas was in his prime.